DAILY UPDATE (February 27th to March 1st) – Next Postings: Data Release (Mar 2nd*), Commentaries (Feb 28th/Mar 1st**) // 2019 Recession Continues to Unfold Rapidly / Third-Quarter 2019 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Just Revised Sharply Lower, from 2.1% to 1.3%, Based on Weakening Employment/Wage Revisions / Beware a Meaningful, Downside July 2020 GDP Benchmarking! / Year-to-Year Plunge in Real New Orders for Durable Goods Deepened in January 2020 / Unfolding 2018/2019 Recession Is the Result of Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening in 2018, and Lack of Adequate, Subsequent Easing / Yet the FOMC Now Looks to Ease, Using Coronavirus Concerns to Cover Its Own Policy Malfeasance (see FOMC) / January 2020 Freight Activity Continued Plunging Year-to-Year, As Last Seen at the Great Recession Onset / Indication There Is for Neither a “Booming” Economy, Nor “Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth” / Quarterly Contraction in Fourth-Quarter 2019 “Holiday Season” Real Retail Sales Deepened in Revision / January Mining Activity Rose, but Weaker Manufacturing and Weather-Depressed Utilities Knocked Aggregate Industrial Production Lower by 0.3% (-0.3%) / Capacity Utilization Dropped to Its Lowest Level Since Coming Out of the 2014-2016 Mini-Recession; Down 2.8 Percentage Points from Its November 2018 Peak / Recession Signals Continued to Intensify for FOMC-Battered GDP Consumer Spending // ON THE PLUS-SIDE, HOUSING: Absurd Volatility: Neither Respective Monthly Nor Annual Gains of 7.9% and 18.6% in January 2020 New-Home Sales Was Meaningful at the 90% Confidence Interval / Nonetheless, Six-Month Smoothed Activity in New-Residential Construction and New-Home Sales Have Pushed to Post-Recession Highs, Despite Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 31% (-31%) to 45% (-45%)
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