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RE: Winter began 5 days or so ago?
Posted on: December 26, 2019 at 08:58:28 CT
Ace UNC
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Alaska will likely see a warm and wet winter, according to the winter outlook recently released by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. This prediction comes after Anchorage recorded its warmest summer on record and Alaska recorded its warmest July on record.
When thinking about a winter forecast, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the cream and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the sugar.
ENSO plays a role in determining the seasonal pattern as a whole, while the MJO and AO play a bigger role in weather each week.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can impact how much moisture is in the forecast from week-to-week or month-to-month. The Arctic Oscillation is what causes Arctic airmasses to spill south. It can determine how many cold snaps we see but can't predict an overall pattern.
The presence of an El Nino or La Nina changes weather throughout an entire season. Right now, there no El Nino or La Nina. Temperatures and precipitation would trend close to normal with that weather pattern, but there is more at play here.
This past summer will play a role in determining our winter weather.
The biggest factor in seeing above-normal temperatures is the lack of sea ice around Alaska. This allows the relatively warm water surrounding Alaska to warm the state into the winter months.
Similarly, temperatures have been trending above normal since this summer’s heat wave. October has frequently seen high temperatures 5 degrees above normal, a trend we will likely see continue.
When thinking about a winter forecast, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the cream and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the sugar.
ENSO plays a role in determining the seasonal pattern as a whole, while the MJO and AO play a bigger role in weather each week.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation can impact how much moisture is in the forecast from week-to-week or month-to-month. The Arctic Oscillation is what causes Arctic airmasses to spill south. It can determine how many cold snaps we see but can't predict an overall pattern.
The presence of an El Nino or La Nina changes weather throughout an entire season. Right now, there no El Nino or La Nina. Temperatures and precipitation would trend close to normal with that weather pattern, but there is more at play here.
This past summer will play a role in determining our winter weather.
The biggest factor in seeing above-normal temperatures is the lack of sea ice around Alaska. This allows the relatively warm water surrounding Alaska to warm the state into the winter months.
Similarly, temperatures have been trending above normal since this summer’s heat wave. October has frequently seen high temperatures 5 degrees above normal, a trend we will likely see continue.
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RE: Winter began 5 days or so ago? - Ace AU - 12/26 08:58:28