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SEC PICKS WEEK 11 and other games...
Posted on: November 7, 2019 at 10:23:32 CT
qbbearcat MU
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Nice bounce back week of picks last week to get some of our losses back. Still down a little over 10 units on the year but it has been much worse. This week will go a long way to determine if we end up in the black or not. I like a lot of games so we shall see how this week goes. If it goes well we will be in the black starting next week!! Year to date records and this week’s picks below.
SEC PICKS: 62-19 SU 11-15-1 ATS -4.5U
OTHER PICKS: 51-17 SU; 34-36-3 ATS -6U
TOTALS: 113-36 SU; 45-51-4 ATS -10.5U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 13-18-1 -6.8U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 21-24-1 -10.8U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 8-8 -2.4U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 3-1 +9.5U
SEC GAMES
FLORIDA -26 vs VANDERBILT (NO PLAY) – Early kick for the Gators coming off emotional loss against Georgia. I expect the Gators to be sleepwalking early…the question then is can Vandy take advantage? I don’t think they do and then the Gator defense will take over. I’m not going to play this game as I think this line is pretty spot on but I think Vandy hangs around early but kicks FG’s then the Gator D wakes up and takes over. FLORIDA 34 VANDETBILT 9
SOUTH CAROLINA -5 vs APPALACHIAN STATE (NO PLAY) – App State blew a chance to come into this game undefeated last week against Ga Southern…maybe the Gamecocks should adopt the triple option for the week. This is a must win for SC if they want to go bowling so they will be ready to play. SC has to be able to get the ground game going if they want to win this and that won’t be easy. In the end I think this is a hard close fought battle but in the end I think the Gamecocks find a way. SOUTH CAROLINA 24 APPALACHIAN STATE 20
ARKANSAS -2.5 vs WESTERN KENTUCKY (2 UNITS) – Another scary game for the Razorbacks who have already lost to San Jose State at home this year. Both of these offenses are, well, just not very good. If Arkansas can keep from turning it over then they have a chance but they have turned it over 16 times in their last 6 games…that’s not good. Hilltoppers win a close one. WESTERN KETUCKY 27 ARKANSAS 24
MISSISSIPPI -28 vs NEW MEXICO STATE (1 UNIT) – Ole Miss should be able to do whatever they want here. They very well may run for 400 yards this week on a horrible run defense. Rebels get to take out some of their frustration this week and keep their very slim bowl chances alive one more week. MISSISSIPPI 59 NEW MEXICO STATE 24
TENNESSEE +1 @ KENTUCKY (2 UNITS) – Tennessee is playing much better lately and UK has had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for this game. This game will come down to tempo. If UK can slow the game down and ugly it up then I like their chances. If UT gets up early and forces the Wildcats to play from behind I like their chances. Tennessee needs this game more as they have to win 2 of 3 to get to a bowl game and I think their tempo wins out. TENNESSEE 28 KETUCKY 20
ALABAMA -6.5 vs LSU (NO PLAY) – Just going to sit back and enjoy this one. I have been thinking all year long that would take LSU in this game and now that it’s here I just can’t pull the trigger. Tua is banged up and LSU has looked great all year but this line is now begging me to take LSU and that has me all messed up. This isn’t going to be the old school LSU/Bama game as I think this one will be first to 30 wins. Like I said I want to take LSU but in the end I will go with Bama at home. ALABAMA 31 LSU 24
MIZZOU +16.5 @ GEORGIA – I want to believe two weeks off will help this team. I want to believe UGA will have a bit of letdown after the Florida game and Mizzou looking like hot garbage for two weeks. I want to believe this team will finally show up on the road. I want to believe all those things but nothing this team has shown me make me think it will happen. On top of that now Bryant seems to be somewhat questionable. I will watch and I will be rooting for my Tigers but there is no way I could wager a dime on this team right now. I think the defense will keep them in it as UGA’s offense isn’t the type of offense that causes Mizzou problems. Mizzou might get a early TD or two if UGA is sluggish early on but I don’t think they move the ball consistently with or without Bryant. GEORGIA 31 MIZZOU 13 (no that isn’t 2 FG’s that is a missed extra point…lol)
OTHER GAMES
ILLINOIS +14.5 @ MICHIGAN STATE (5 UNITS) – Never thought I would be placing a large wager on Illinois this year on the road but this line is just wrong. Ever since the Illinois game the Illini have been rolling and this Michigan State team can’t do anything offensively. Since the beginning of October Michigan State has score 17 points….TOTAL. Yes those games were Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State but still. Illinois might not only cover here they might win outright. MICHIGAN STATE 20 ILLINOIS 17
KANSAS STATE +7 @ TEXAS (3 UNITS) – Texas’ defense can’t seem to stop anyone at this moment. Now they are expected to stop Kansas State who seems to control the ball for 3 quarters every game. Kansas State does all the little things that Texas does not and that will lead to a road win for the Wildcats here. KANSAS STATE 38 TEXAS 34
WISCONSIN -9.5 vs IOWA (2 UNITS/1 UNIT UNDER 38.5) – Neither of these teams are very dynamic on offense. It will come down to who win the line of scrimmage and in the end I think that will be Wisconsin. This game will be very quick as there will not be very many passes. If Iowa hangs around it will be because their D holds down the running game of Wisconsin so I will hedge a bit with the under and hope to actually hit both. WISCONSIN 20 IOWA 6
PURDUE +2 @ NORTHWESTERN (3 UNITS) – So here are Northwestern’s point totals in their games against power five opponents so far….7,10, 15, 10, 3, 0, 3. So they are averaging 5.4 points per game??? That is just plain horrible offense. Purdue seems to kind of find a spark last week against the Huskers and I think that carries over to this game as they still have an outside shot at a bowl game. PURDUE 24 NORTHWESTERN 13
IOWA STATE +13.5 @ OKLAHOMA (1 UNIT) – Turnovers killed the Cyclones against Oklahoma State and they simply can’t afford those this week against the Sooners. My only concern here is Oklahoma knows it has to impress to keep their playoff hopes alive. Iowa State is just too pesky though for me to see a blowout. OKLAHOMA 38 IOWA STATE 30
OTHER LEANS
BC -1.5 vs FLORIDA STATE
WAKE FOREST -2.5 @ VIRGINIA TECH
WYOMING +13.5 @ BOISE STATE
SEC PICKS: 62-19 SU 11-15-1 ATS -4.5U
OTHER PICKS: 51-17 SU; 34-36-3 ATS -6U
TOTALS: 113-36 SU; 45-51-4 ATS -10.5U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 13-18-1 -6.8U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 21-24-1 -10.8U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 8-8 -2.4U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 3-1 +9.5U
SEC GAMES
FLORIDA -26 vs VANDERBILT (NO PLAY) – Early kick for the Gators coming off emotional loss against Georgia. I expect the Gators to be sleepwalking early…the question then is can Vandy take advantage? I don’t think they do and then the Gator defense will take over. I’m not going to play this game as I think this line is pretty spot on but I think Vandy hangs around early but kicks FG’s then the Gator D wakes up and takes over. FLORIDA 34 VANDETBILT 9
SOUTH CAROLINA -5 vs APPALACHIAN STATE (NO PLAY) – App State blew a chance to come into this game undefeated last week against Ga Southern…maybe the Gamecocks should adopt the triple option for the week. This is a must win for SC if they want to go bowling so they will be ready to play. SC has to be able to get the ground game going if they want to win this and that won’t be easy. In the end I think this is a hard close fought battle but in the end I think the Gamecocks find a way. SOUTH CAROLINA 24 APPALACHIAN STATE 20
ARKANSAS -2.5 vs WESTERN KENTUCKY (2 UNITS) – Another scary game for the Razorbacks who have already lost to San Jose State at home this year. Both of these offenses are, well, just not very good. If Arkansas can keep from turning it over then they have a chance but they have turned it over 16 times in their last 6 games…that’s not good. Hilltoppers win a close one. WESTERN KETUCKY 27 ARKANSAS 24
MISSISSIPPI -28 vs NEW MEXICO STATE (1 UNIT) – Ole Miss should be able to do whatever they want here. They very well may run for 400 yards this week on a horrible run defense. Rebels get to take out some of their frustration this week and keep their very slim bowl chances alive one more week. MISSISSIPPI 59 NEW MEXICO STATE 24
TENNESSEE +1 @ KENTUCKY (2 UNITS) – Tennessee is playing much better lately and UK has had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for this game. This game will come down to tempo. If UK can slow the game down and ugly it up then I like their chances. If UT gets up early and forces the Wildcats to play from behind I like their chances. Tennessee needs this game more as they have to win 2 of 3 to get to a bowl game and I think their tempo wins out. TENNESSEE 28 KETUCKY 20
ALABAMA -6.5 vs LSU (NO PLAY) – Just going to sit back and enjoy this one. I have been thinking all year long that would take LSU in this game and now that it’s here I just can’t pull the trigger. Tua is banged up and LSU has looked great all year but this line is now begging me to take LSU and that has me all messed up. This isn’t going to be the old school LSU/Bama game as I think this one will be first to 30 wins. Like I said I want to take LSU but in the end I will go with Bama at home. ALABAMA 31 LSU 24
MIZZOU +16.5 @ GEORGIA – I want to believe two weeks off will help this team. I want to believe UGA will have a bit of letdown after the Florida game and Mizzou looking like hot garbage for two weeks. I want to believe this team will finally show up on the road. I want to believe all those things but nothing this team has shown me make me think it will happen. On top of that now Bryant seems to be somewhat questionable. I will watch and I will be rooting for my Tigers but there is no way I could wager a dime on this team right now. I think the defense will keep them in it as UGA’s offense isn’t the type of offense that causes Mizzou problems. Mizzou might get a early TD or two if UGA is sluggish early on but I don’t think they move the ball consistently with or without Bryant. GEORGIA 31 MIZZOU 13 (no that isn’t 2 FG’s that is a missed extra point…lol)
OTHER GAMES
ILLINOIS +14.5 @ MICHIGAN STATE (5 UNITS) – Never thought I would be placing a large wager on Illinois this year on the road but this line is just wrong. Ever since the Illinois game the Illini have been rolling and this Michigan State team can’t do anything offensively. Since the beginning of October Michigan State has score 17 points….TOTAL. Yes those games were Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State but still. Illinois might not only cover here they might win outright. MICHIGAN STATE 20 ILLINOIS 17
KANSAS STATE +7 @ TEXAS (3 UNITS) – Texas’ defense can’t seem to stop anyone at this moment. Now they are expected to stop Kansas State who seems to control the ball for 3 quarters every game. Kansas State does all the little things that Texas does not and that will lead to a road win for the Wildcats here. KANSAS STATE 38 TEXAS 34
WISCONSIN -9.5 vs IOWA (2 UNITS/1 UNIT UNDER 38.5) – Neither of these teams are very dynamic on offense. It will come down to who win the line of scrimmage and in the end I think that will be Wisconsin. This game will be very quick as there will not be very many passes. If Iowa hangs around it will be because their D holds down the running game of Wisconsin so I will hedge a bit with the under and hope to actually hit both. WISCONSIN 20 IOWA 6
PURDUE +2 @ NORTHWESTERN (3 UNITS) – So here are Northwestern’s point totals in their games against power five opponents so far….7,10, 15, 10, 3, 0, 3. So they are averaging 5.4 points per game??? That is just plain horrible offense. Purdue seems to kind of find a spark last week against the Huskers and I think that carries over to this game as they still have an outside shot at a bowl game. PURDUE 24 NORTHWESTERN 13
IOWA STATE +13.5 @ OKLAHOMA (1 UNIT) – Turnovers killed the Cyclones against Oklahoma State and they simply can’t afford those this week against the Sooners. My only concern here is Oklahoma knows it has to impress to keep their playoff hopes alive. Iowa State is just too pesky though for me to see a blowout. OKLAHOMA 38 IOWA STATE 30
OTHER LEANS
BC -1.5 vs FLORIDA STATE
WAKE FOREST -2.5 @ VIRGINIA TECH
WYOMING +13.5 @ BOISE STATE
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SEC PICKS WEEK 11 and other games... - qbbearcat MU - 11/7 10:23:32