Welcome Guest

Gradually. Then suddenly.

Posted on: November 5, 2019 at 08:17:38 CT
Ace UNC
Posts:
28948
Member For:
6.04 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
10
“How did you go bankrupt?” one Hemingway character asked another in The Sun Also Rises. “Two ways,” came the reply. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
And that’s how the Senate may vote to convict Donald J. Trump.
As a parade of national security officials troops to Capitol Hill to be deposed, impeachment by the House seems almost certain. But what about conviction in the Senate? Twenty Republican Senators must join all 47 Democrats. (Yes, I’m counting the two independents, including you, Bernie). How can that happen?
À la Hemingway: Gradually and then suddenly. Senator on senator will make a politically and personally agonizing choice. And at some stage we will reach the tipping point.
We’ve seen this before: in the summer of ’74 and the swift fall of Richard Nixon.
Counting as of today — before all the evidence has come forth, and before all but a handful of texts and emails have been handed over — there are perhaps a half-dozen Republican senators who might vote to convict: Ben Sasse (principled conservative). Lisa Murkowski (the only GOP senator not to support Kavanaugh). Susan Collins (voted for Kavanaugh and therefore in big trouble back in Maine). Johnny Isakson (retiring). Lamar Alexander (retiring). Mitt Romney (maneuvering).
As Chairman Schiff gathers the testimony and makes it public, as he has vowed, it is hard to imagine that its weight will lessen. Take the storm created by a handful of texts from Special Envoy Kurt Volker’s phone, and multiply it, as a multitude of emails, memcons and notes from others comes to light. [Note to Chair Schiff: Still remember how to draft a motion to compel production of documents? It’s time.]
As the evidence comes forth, the case against the president will harden. And then will come formal impeachment proceedings and the necessity for public votes.
And that is how a half-dozen votes in the Senate can become two-dozen, almost overnight.
History, as usual, is our best guide: the swift fall of Richard Nixon in the summer of 1974. On July 24, 1974, a unanimous Supreme Court held that Nixon must produce the Watergate tapes. Before that date, just one Republican on the House Judiciary Committee had publicly announced support for impeachment. And yet, within two weeks, Nixon was gone.
How was that tipping point reached? The House Judiciary Committee began to consider articles of impeachment on July 27th, three days after the Court’s decision. Over the course of four days of votes, one pro-impeachment committee Republican swelled to seven. Just a few days later, on August 5, Nixon turned over the tapes, including the famous “smoking gun” recorded right after the 1972 Watergate break-in. Two days later, Republican leaders visited Nixon in the White House and told him his support in Congress had collapsed. On August 8, Nixon resigned.
In just 15 days, Republican support for Nixon went from near-unanimous to non-existent. And in those few days, a few courageous Republicans like Congressman William Cohen of Maine (“yes” on impeachment), and the GOP leaders who visited Nixon to tell him the bad news (Senators Barry Goldwater and Hugh Scott, and House minority leader John Rhodes) sealed lifelong reputations for probity and prudence by publicly jumping ahead of their colleagues.
How will a tipping point be reached in Trump’s case? We can’t know. But we do know that history so far is rhyming, if not repeating. Republican support for Nixon remained strong throughout the many months of investigation. Then-House GOP leader Gerald Ford called the investigation a “political witch hunt,” and Senator Bob Dole inveighed against “allegations by George McGovern and his partner in mud-slinging, The Washington Post” (sound familiar?).
And public support was with Nixon — until it wasn’t. Through many months of public hearings in 1973 and 1974, the public was against impeachment. Only in March of 1974, after the formal House inquiry was launched and subpoena power granted to the Judiciary Committee, did the lines “for” and “against” cross. By early July, support for impeachment still barely touched 50%. Then quickly, by early August it hit 60% and the president was gone.
Today, we are already at the 50% mark, months ahead of the pace four decades ago.
And so today, as then, a handful of lawmakers can grow one-by-one. Other senators who are retiring (Pat Roberts) or in tough races (Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst), or principled moral conservatives (James Lankford, Tim Scott, Mike Lee), or independent thinkers (Rob Portman, Ron Johnson, Dan Sullivan, Rand Paul), can dream of being Goldwater or Rhodes or Cohen. After all, it’s not a choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It’s a choice between Trump and . . . Mike Pence.
If the number passes a dozen, the other 41 members of the Republican caucus will look within their political souls and ask — if this is happening, on which side of history will I be? What will I tell my grandchildren? And, for some, “Boy I’d like my fingerprints to be on that” (Ted Cruz, that’s you).
Former GOP Senator Jeff Flake recently said “at least 35” Republican senators would vote for removal if the vote were private. Remembering Richard Nixon and the summer of 1974, it’s not difficult to see how the impossible may happen.
Gradually then suddenly.

Nelson Cunningham


President of McLarty Associates, global strategy firm. Former Clinton and Biden aide, former AUSA in SDNY.
Report Message

Please explain why this message is being reported.

REPLY

Handle:
Password:
Subject:

MESSAGE THREAD

Gradually. Then suddenly. - Ace AU - 11/5 08:17:38




©2025 Fanboards L.L.C. — Our Privacy Policy   About Tigerboard