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Arizona Issues
Posted on: November 8, 2018 at 23:20:53 CT
ScottsdaleTiger MU
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Arizona mails early ballots to any registered voter who requests one. They are mailed by the County Recorder and are to be mailed back to the County Recorder by election day. They can also be dropped off at a polling place on election day.
Each early ballot is enclosed in a special envelope that has a place for the voter to sign it and a contact telephone number. If there is no valid signature, the ballot is not counted.
The signature on the ballot's envelope is compared to the voter's signature on their registration form to insure its the designated voter's ballot. How this is down obviously can raise a lot of issues.
If there is a question about a signature, County Recorders call the telephone number and verify the signature's validity. My understanding is the statute says these calls can be made up through election day.
It is silent as to whether or not the calls can be made after election day.
About a third to half the County Recorders also call people after election day to verify their signatures. These include Maricopa County (Phoenix metro area). The other County Recorders don't make calls after election day.
The GOP has filed suit in the Maricopa County Superior Court to prohibit the counting of votes where the signature was verified by a post election day call. The suit was filed Wednesday and a hearing (presumably on a temporary restraining order) was held today. I understand further proceedings are scheduled for tomorrow.
It would seem that since McSally and two other state wide GOP candidates had small leads as of the end of election day and the purpose of the suit is to preclude the counting of any additional ballots after election date.
Arizona has about 3.4/3.5 million registered voters. It appears that about 65% voted, roughly 2.2 to 2.3 million votes. It would be the second highest turnout percentage wise of any primary or general election in the state's history.
Currently, about 1.86 million votes have been counted. Sinema leads 932,870 to 923,360 with the Green candidate having about 40K.
Those numbers indicate that roughly 400+K of votes remain to be counted. It's probable that most of those votes are in Maricopa County (Phoenix Metro). Sinema is winning Maricopa County currently by 551K to 523K and 23K respectively for McSally and the Green candidate.
Those numbers would seem to suggest that Sinema is in good shape to win unless the remaining uncounted ballots run heavily GOP.
Sinema has been a more "likeable" candidate than McSally. Most of Sinema's radical past is ten years ago or more in the past. She has been relatively moderate in Congress. She has run a good campaign and has had very substantial financial support. She mounted an effective get out the vote ground campaign.
McSally had several votes while in Congress that apparently hurt her. One was a vote that arguably was for a provision that would have allowed health insurers to avoid covering pre-existing injuries. Another was a vote that arguably could have increased the taxes paid by seniors on social security. The third was one that could be read as anti-abortion. Sinema ran attack ads on the first two and those ads were effective. A "women's rights" organization at Arizona State has been very active and apparently effective in its support of Sinema.
Also, it appears that Trump's style alienated a number of women voters.
We will see what tomorrow brings.
Edited by ScottsdaleTiger at 23:28:56 on 11/08/18
Each early ballot is enclosed in a special envelope that has a place for the voter to sign it and a contact telephone number. If there is no valid signature, the ballot is not counted.
The signature on the ballot's envelope is compared to the voter's signature on their registration form to insure its the designated voter's ballot. How this is down obviously can raise a lot of issues.
If there is a question about a signature, County Recorders call the telephone number and verify the signature's validity. My understanding is the statute says these calls can be made up through election day.
It is silent as to whether or not the calls can be made after election day.
About a third to half the County Recorders also call people after election day to verify their signatures. These include Maricopa County (Phoenix metro area). The other County Recorders don't make calls after election day.
The GOP has filed suit in the Maricopa County Superior Court to prohibit the counting of votes where the signature was verified by a post election day call. The suit was filed Wednesday and a hearing (presumably on a temporary restraining order) was held today. I understand further proceedings are scheduled for tomorrow.
It would seem that since McSally and two other state wide GOP candidates had small leads as of the end of election day and the purpose of the suit is to preclude the counting of any additional ballots after election date.
Arizona has about 3.4/3.5 million registered voters. It appears that about 65% voted, roughly 2.2 to 2.3 million votes. It would be the second highest turnout percentage wise of any primary or general election in the state's history.
Currently, about 1.86 million votes have been counted. Sinema leads 932,870 to 923,360 with the Green candidate having about 40K.
Those numbers indicate that roughly 400+K of votes remain to be counted. It's probable that most of those votes are in Maricopa County (Phoenix Metro). Sinema is winning Maricopa County currently by 551K to 523K and 23K respectively for McSally and the Green candidate.
Those numbers would seem to suggest that Sinema is in good shape to win unless the remaining uncounted ballots run heavily GOP.
Sinema has been a more "likeable" candidate than McSally. Most of Sinema's radical past is ten years ago or more in the past. She has been relatively moderate in Congress. She has run a good campaign and has had very substantial financial support. She mounted an effective get out the vote ground campaign.
McSally had several votes while in Congress that apparently hurt her. One was a vote that arguably was for a provision that would have allowed health insurers to avoid covering pre-existing injuries. Another was a vote that arguably could have increased the taxes paid by seniors on social security. The third was one that could be read as anti-abortion. Sinema ran attack ads on the first two and those ads were effective. A "women's rights" organization at Arizona State has been very active and apparently effective in its support of Sinema.
Also, it appears that Trump's style alienated a number of women voters.
We will see what tomorrow brings.
Edited by ScottsdaleTiger at 23:28:56 on 11/08/18
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Arizona Issues - ScottsdaleTiger MU - 11/8 23:20:53