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WEEK 11 SEC picks and other games...

Posted on: November 8, 2018 at 10:36:01 CT
qbbearcat MU
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Not a great week with the picks last week but it was still a positive week. Still only one losing week on the year (I’m sure I just jinxed this week). Last week I was 6-5 ATS +1.9U. Here is how we stand on the year along with this week’s picks.

SEC PICKS: 63-17 SU 29-15-1 ATS +26.3U (65.9%)
OTHER PICKS: 53-10 SU 40-27-1 ATS +17.1U (59.7%)
TOTAL: 116-27 SU; 69-42-2 ATS +43.4 (62.2%)

SIDES: 54-28-2 +41.9U
TOTALS: 15-14 +1.5U

1 UNIT PLAYS: 18-13 +3.7U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 37-18 +34.4U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 12-9-1 +6.3U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 2-2-1 -1U

WEEK 1: 5-3 +3.4U
WEEK 2: 6-5 +2U
WEEK 3: 8-4 +5.2U
WEEK 4: 5-4 +4.2U
WEEK 5: 9-3 +9.3
WEEK 6: 8-6-1 +4U
WEEK 7: 6-6 -3U
WEEK 8: 6-4 +6.4U
WEEK 9: 10-3-1 +10.4U
WEEK 10: 6-5 +1.9U

MIZZOU GAMES: 6-3 SU; 4-1-1 ATS +4.7U; 1-1 +.9U on totals

SEC PICKS

FLORIDA -6 vs SOUTH CAROLINA (NO PLAY) – not sure who will be starting at QB for Florida this week and I can’t trust SC so I’m staying far away from this game. It seems like every week SC is in some sort of close game so no reason to think otherwise here. So if I had to pick I would take the points. In the end I think Florida sticks to the running game and pulls out a close one. FLORIDA 27 SOUTH CAROLINA 23

TEXAS A&M -12 vs MISSISSIPPI (3 UNITS UNDER 67) – A&M will try to control the ball as much as possible and keep the Ole Miss offense on the sideline. I think they will be successful in doing that so that is why I am playing the under here. I think they are able to do what Auburn did to Ole Miss to a degree and see a similar type game. TEXAS A&M 31 MISSISSIPPI 17

ALABAMA -24 vs MISSISSIPPI STATE (NO PLAY) – If I was ever going to pick against Alabama it would be here. The Tide are a little banged up and coming off a huge win on the road at LSU. Mississippi State has kind of found their offense the last couple of games. Mississippi State has the lines to hang in this game. In the end though I think the Tide have too many weapons but they will have to sweat a little in this one. ALABAMA 34 MISSISSIPPI STATE 16

KENTUCKY -6 vs TENNESSEE (3 UNITS UNDER 42.5) – Both of these offenses are really not that good and both D’s are solid. I was happy to get 4 when it opened up but now 6 is not as appealing to me but either way this could be first one to 10 wins. KENTUCKY 20 TENNESSEE 10

GEORGIA -14 vs AUBURN (1 UNIT) – Georgia dominated UK last week because it controlled the line of scrimmage. They very well could do the same here against Auburn but I think Auburn will be able to run the ball a bit. Also this is a rivalry game so I expect UGA to get the Tigers best shot. It won’t be enough but it will be a battle. GEROGIA 28 AUBURN 20

LSU -13.5 @ ARKANSAS (NO PLAY) – How will the Tigers respond after the Bama beat down last week on their home field. I think they could take out their frustrations on the Hogs, but they could also come out sluggish. No matter what happens I think they win this one pretty easily. LSU 38 ARKASAS 17

MIZZOU -17 vs VANDERBILT (NO PLAY) – This line opened at 14.5 and is all the way up to 17. I think this line is about right. I think Missouri’s offense should be able to move the ball pretty consistently on the Commodore D. The question is can Vandy keep up…my answer is kind of. I do think Vandy will put up some points but I don’t think they can keep up with the Tigers. Against Arkansas they were able to run the ball for 250+ yards, they won’t be able to do that against the Tigers. Weather has me a little concerned as it is going to be COLD! But if Mizzou has to rely on the run game I think that works as well. In the end Tigers have too many weapons. MIZZOU 41 VANDERBTIL 20


Other games I like

SYRACUSE/LOUISVILLE (2 UNITS OVER 69) – Been riding the Syracuse train all year. Louisville can’t stop anyone, giving up 56+ in 3 of their last 4 games. I think the Cuse get to 50 so I just need Louisville to get to 20 and I think they can. SYRACUE 55 LOUISVILLE 24

FRESNO STATE -2.5 @ BOISE STATE (1 UNIT) – Fresno D is really good…only giving up 36 points in their last 5 games. Boise’s offense has been pretty good but not as good when they play tough defenses. I think Fresno goes into Boise and gets the win. FRESNO STATE 31 BOISE STATE 23

WEST VIRGINIA -12 vs TCU (1 UNIT) – WV is coming off a big win over Texas and could start slow…and the TCU D is one that could frustrate them. But in the end they just have too much fire power for the Horned Frogs who can’t do much on offense. WEST VIRGNIA 31 TCU 10

ILLIINOIS/NEBRASKA (2 UNITS OVER 69) – Neither team has done much on defense this year. The Husker D actually looked ok versus Ohio State last week. Illinois has given up 47 points per game the last 4 games so I expect the Huskers to put up plenty of points. I expect the Illinois ground game to be able to get yards. NEBRASKA 52 ILLINOIS 35

MEMPHIS -15.5 vs TULSA (1 UNIT) – Memphis ground game should be the story here. I think they have a big day. Tulsa will get some points but not enough to cover. MEMPHIS 49 TULSA 28

KANSAS/KANSAS STATE (5 UNITS UNDER 46.5) – Neither offense can do much of anything and neither D is that bad. Kansas needs help with turnovers for their offense to do anything, don’t expect that from Kansas State. Wildcats grind out an ugly win. KANSAS STATE 17 KANSAS 10

MICHIGAN -39 vs RUTGERS (2 UNITS) – Rutgers may not score…and if they do it won’t be more than 10. Michigan keeps their foot on the pedal. MICHIGAN 49 RUTGERS 3

PURDUE -12 @ MINNESOTA (2 UNITS) – weather has me slightly concerned but this team just gave up 55 to Illinois. These two teams are going in opposite directions. PURDUE 45 MINNESOTA 27

NOTRE DAME -16.5 vs FLORIDA STAET (2 UNITS) – Cold weather game against a Florida team that looks like they have quit. Yes please…even with their backup QB Notre Dame will dominate this game. NOTRE DAME 41 FLORIDA STATE 17

OREGON STATE +24 @ STANFORD (1 UNIT) - Not sure how a team averaging 26 points a game and their largest output is 38 is favored by 24 over anyone. I know it is Oregon State but still. STANFORD 34 OREGON STATE 17

ALSO CONSIDERING

MICHIGAN STATE +3.5
PENN STATE -9 (waiting on injury news on the QB’s)
OKLAHOMA/OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 79
NORTHWESTERN +10.5
TEXAS -2
BOSTON COLLEGE +20
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WEEK 11 SEC picks and other games... - qbbearcat MU - 11/8 10:36:01
     Louisville is bad and mailed it in weeks ago - Eggs MU - 11/8 10:56:47




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