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Key VB games today in the SEC...

Posted on: October 28, 2018 at 10:58:54 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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The games today:

Florida @ Miss State
SC @ Kentucky
Tennessee @ Georgia
Arkansas @ Auburn
TAMU @ Mizzou
Ole Miss @ Alabama

Current standings with conference records and RPI as of Monday:

Kentucky 9-0 (10)
Florida 9-1 (16)
Missouri 9-2 (25)
Tennessee 8-2 (38)
SC 6-4 (29)
Alabama 5-5 (35)
TAMU 5-5 (78)
Arkansas 4-6 (84)
Georgia 3-7 (73)
Auburn 2-8 (85)
LSU 2-8 (100)
Ole Miss 2-8 (107)
Miss State 1-9 (224)

Mizzou needs to avoid any letdown against a TAMU team that has probably already played their way out of the NCAA tourney, with a 78 RPI that was before they suffered an awful home loss to Bama in 5 sets this week.

At this point I think only UK, Florida, and Missouri (barring a complete collapse in the last 7 games) are locks for SEC teams to get NCAA bids. We have a very favorable closing schedule, 4 home games and 3 away, with 2 of the away games against Auburn and LSU at the bottom of the standings. All 4 home matches are tough: TAMU, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky. If we go at least 5-2 to close the season I think our RPI will be somewhere in the 25-30 range.

The SEC is going to get 5 bids max this year. Talented Georgia and TAMU teams with RPIs of 73 and 78 are just too far away. Ignore Alabama, their RPI of 35 is an anomaly. So SC and Tennessee are the ones fighting for a 4th and 5th NCAA bid at this point. SC has a brutal closing stretch with Florida, Kentucky twice, and Missouri. They are going to take on another 3-4 conference losses, and should end up with an RPI in the 30-40 range, which may be enough. Tennessee has a key game today at struggling Georgia.

I think Mizzou is just too far away to make a run at a top 16 national seed. If we win out, or go 6-1 with another signature win over Kentucky we might be in the conversation. But there are a lot of teams in front of us fighting for the last few top 16 seeds, who have better tourney resumes than we do because of Kreklows usual timid non conference scheduling and the fact that we compete in the SEC and have few opportunities for signature wins to impress the selection committee. I think it's more realistic to finish strong and be a high #2 seed in an away regional against a halfway beatable national seed in the 12-16 range.

Need to take care of business today though.

Edited by bluetiger_ at 10:59:31 on 10/28/18
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Key VB games today in the SEC... - bluetiger_ MU - 10/28 10:58:54




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