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MizzouRah's Picks Week VII

Posted on: October 9, 2018 at 18:07:30 CT
MizzouRah MU
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Well, we were 1-5 ATS last week to drop to a disappointing 16-19 record on the year.

Back in the day, I racked up 55% plus against the spread every year but I guess back then I was really locked into Big 12 football (This used to be "MizzouRah Picks the Big 12 and I picked every single Big 12 game ATS with some nice success). I'm afraid I haven't been hitting the winners much in recent years but thanks to those who still read anyway.

Speaking of disappointing, the way Ol'Mizzou lost to South Carolina was extremely frustrating. Yes, some of the calls that went against the Tigers (overturn a TD and still get it wrong? Phantom holding on the game-winning drive?) were egregiously bad but this team simply has to show more poise and mental toughness if things are going to progress. Folks, South Carolina is a very limited football team, and that was a bad loss. Enough negativity, let's analyze the Mizzou vs. Alabama game! Oops......

MIZZOU (+28.5) at Alabama - Well, the good news is I will be in attendance and I've made plenty of fun road trips where I didn't give the Tigers much of a shot and I just hoped for the best, so I am going to make sure I will enjoy this trip. If this Alabama team were more limited in the passing game as has been the case in the past, I'd give MU a punchers chance in this game. The Tigers had a shot to beat Georgia had they executed better and Alabama is not perfect in the secondary.

But this is a different Alabama team with much more of an explosive passing offense. Anyone that watched MU try to defend the pass at the end of the South Carolina game where they just needed to keep a pedestrian offense out of field goal range realizes the odds aren't good here for the monumental upset.

I lean to Alabama covering but since I think MU will put up 24 points or more (even if it is garbage time), OVER 75 points is the official pick here. MU will improve when we are back with our best receivers but I would imagine the Tigers will hold Hall out to make sure he is healthy for a stretch run of winnable games.

Ok. State (-7) at K-State - K-State looked quite a bit better on offense last week and it is homecoming. Oklahoma State appears to be dreadful on defense so I'll take the home dog to lose another tough one here but Ok. State does not cover the number.

Texas A&M (-2) at South Carolina - I'm sure South Carolina fans probably think I have something against them but I just am not that impressed with their team. And, honestly, I don't think it matters if Bentley plays or not. I was VERY impressed with the Aggie defense against Kentucky and if MU played South Carolina in the other Columbia ten times, I'm pretty certain the Tigers win at least seven times. It appears that A&M is better than MU so....

AGGIES BY 14

Purdue (-10.5) at Illinois - The Iliini did beat a dreadful Rutgers team but betting against bad teams and on hungry teams makes a lot of sense to me.

PURUDE by 18

OVER 70 in Ole Miss vs. Arkansas - Neither D is all that good and Arkansas appears to have found a quarterback.

WISCONSIN (+7.5) at Michigan - I think the Wisconsin D has taken a step back this year but Vegas wants to give me that hook? I'll take it as these teams should be fairly evenly matched. I think Michigan squeaks out a win.

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-4.5) at Memphis - I know I am taking too many favorites and too many road teams but I think UCF is a very strong team and Memphis is getting over hyped a bit based on past success. This will be an interesting game to watch as the other Tigers come to Columbia for homecoming next week but I like UCF by double digits here.

Finally, for my Nebraska friends who are kind enough to read each week. The line vs. Northwestern seems low to me and it has moved by several points. I won't make it an official pick but usually, when I am this confused by a line, it turns out counter to my expectations. I know that's not a ringing vote of confidence but if I had to bet this game I'd play Nebraska for that reason (NOT AN OFFICIAL PICK THOUGH) and the Huskers did show life on offense last week.

That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Crimson Tide) team!
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MizzouRah's Picks Week VII - MizzouRah MU - 10/9 18:07:30
     RE: MizzouRah's Picks Week VII - MizzouRah MU - 10/9 18:12:16
     Thx, your post is always appreciated.....screw nubs...nm - tigertix MU - 10/9 18:11:59




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