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WEEK 3 SEC picks and other games...
Posted on: September 13, 2018 at 09:26:37 CT
qbbearcat MU
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Another positive week but a small one. Continued a solid run with my SEC picks going 10-2 SU and 3-1 ATS for 2.8U. In other games we were 3-2 SU and 3-4 ATS for -.8U bringing week 2 to a total of 15-4 SU and 6-5 ATS for +2U. Below are the season totals….on to this weeks picks.
SEC PICKS: 23-3 SU 6-1 ATS +9.8U (85.7%)
OTHER PICKS: 7-3 SU 5-7 ATS -4.4U (41.7%)
TOTAL: 30-6 SU; 11-8 ATS +5.4 (57.9%)
SIDES: 8-5 +5.9U
TOTALS: 3-3 -.5U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 3-2 +.8
2 UNIT PLAYS: 6-4 +3.2
3 UNIT PLAYS: 1-2 -3.6U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 1-0 +5U
WEEK 1: 5-3 +3.4U
WEEK 2: 6-5 +2U
SEC PICKS
ALL GAMES WITH NO LINES
KENTUCKY vs MURRAY STATE – UK 45-17
VANDERBILT + 14.5 @ NOTRE DAME (3 UNITS) – I had this one circled immediately when I saw this line. Vandy has the defense to match ND and I simply don’t trust Wimbush as much as I do Schurmur to protect the ball. If the Irish turn it over like they did last week to Ball State this will be an upset. I think the Irish survive but barely. NOTRE DAME 23 VANDERBILT 17
TENNESSEE -30.5 vs UTEP (NO PLAY) – I have a hard time laying this many points with this Vols team…although if there ever was a time…this would be it. UTEP is one of the worst teams in division 1 and UTEP can’t throw and will be behind so that isn’t a good recipe for an upset. Vols should roll in this one. TENNESSEE 42 UTEP 10
AUBURN -10 vs LSU (1 UNIT) – Hard not to take the points in a game like this one. LSU’s defense will have to slow down Auburn’s offense, which I think they will for the most part but I think Stidham will make enough plays in the end to get the win at home. AUBURN 27 LSU 20
FLORIDA -20 vs COLORADO STATE (NO PLAY) – I would like the take the points here as I don’t think this Gator team should be this big of a favorite. I would take Carter-Samuels over Franks but the problem is he will be going up against the Gator D. UK was able to run on Florida which CSU will not be able to do and that will play right into hands of the Gators. FLORIDA 35 COLORADO STATE 17
ARKANSAS -7 vs NORTH TEXAS (2 UNITS) – things are about to go from bad to worse in Fayetteville. After blowing a big lead in Fort Collins the high flying Mean Green come to town. I think Mason Fine will light up the Arkansas D and I haven’t really been impressed with the Arkansas offense. This could be a shootout which favors the Mean Green. NORTH TEXAS 35 ARKANSAS 30
ALABAMA -21 @ MISSISSIPPI (NO PLAY) – Bama has pretty much looked unbeatable and I was tempted to take the points here but Ole Miss has probably one of the best WR cores in the country and could give the Bama secondary a pretty good test. If they can limit the turnovers then I think they could hang around in this one. I could also just see Bama rolling…so I’m going to stay away from this one. ALABAMA 42 MISSISSIPPI 24
GEORGA -33.5 vs MIDDLE TENNESSE STATE (1 UNIT OVER 54) – MTSU has the offense to hang for a bit but I don’t see how their D slows down UGA at all. I think this number ends up being about right. Dawgs control the game and roll to an easy win and could cover the over by themselves. GEORGIA 52 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE -33 vs LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (NO PLAY) – ULL has had 2 weeks to prepare for this one but I don’t think they have the firepower to keep up in this one. Fitzgerald has another solid day as the Bulldogs roll. MISSISSIPPI STATE 48 LOUSIANA LAFAYETTE 13
TEXAS A&M -26.5 vs LOUISANA MONROE (1 UNIT) – could be a little hangover here for the Aggies this week after the tough loss to Clemson last week and ULM is good enough to give the Aggies a game if they aren’t careful. Aggies come out sluggish but wake up in the second half to pull away but ULM covers. TEXAS A&M 35 LOUISIANA MONROE 17
SOUTH CAROLINA -12 vs MARSHALL (NO PLAY) – very dangerous game here for the Gamecocks. After a disappointing loss to UGA they better not be sleepwalking in this one. Marshall has enough firepower to win this game. In the end though I think SC’s D will just be enough to carry them through but it won’t be easy. SOUTH CAROLINA 23 MARSHALL 17
MIZZOU -7 @ PURDUE (3 UNITS) – Call me a homer, whatever you want but I have a pretty good feeling about this one. I was a lot more worried going into last years game than I am this year (obviously was warranted). Other than Mizzou hurting themselves I just don’t see how Purdue will slow them down consistently, and hurting themselves is not something they have been doing this year. On defense for the Tigers the key will be to slow down Moore. Purdue will be amped early as they really need this win. Moore will get his yards but in the end I think the Tigers weathers the early storm and then takes control of the game to get a road win against a desperate Purdue team. MIZZOU 45 PURDUE 23
OTHER GAMES I LIKE
SYRACUSE +3 vs FLORIDA STATE (2 UNITS)– wrong team favored in this one. Syracuse will finally be playing a defense with a pulse but the Seminoles pass D has surprisingly been torched so far this year. I think that continues this week with Dungy and company. I think he throws for 300 and the Cuse win this one. SYRACUSE 34 FLORIDA STATE 31
OKLAHOMA -17.5 vs IOWA STATE (3 UNITS) – yes ISU is dangerous and yes they pulled off the upset over the Sooners..but that is why it won’t happen this time. That along with the fact that Kempt may or may not play and will not be at 100% if he does. The Sooners will be focused and the Cyclones will have their full attention which will not be good for the Cyclones. OKLAHOMA 45 IOWA STATE 17
OHIO +4 @ VIRGINIA (being played in Nashville) (1 UNIT) – line movement play here…77% percent of the bets are on Virginia and the line has moved from -6 to -3.5 (I got it at 4). Virginia couldn’t stop the ground game of Indiana and that will be problematic against the Bobcats as well. OHIO 23 VIRGINIA 20
BOISE STATE @ OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 63.5 (2 UNITS) – I’m not sure who ends up winning this game but in the end I think both teams will be in the upper 30’s to 40’s so I’m just going to take the over and watch the fireworks. OKLAHOMA STATE 42 BOISTE STATE 38
BUFFALO -3 vs EASTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS) – Nice win by EMU last week at Purdue. Buffalo offense will just be too much this week and will cash in in the red zone which is something Purdue couldn’t do last week. BUFFALO 38 EASTERN MICHIGAN 27
FRESNO STATE -1.5 @ UCLA (1 UNIT) – Bruins can’t score and Fresno doesn’t give up points. That isn’t a good combination. UCLA’s woe’s continue with a home loss to the Bulldogs. FRESNO STATE 24 UCLA 16
Edited by qbbearcat at 09:27:17 on 09/13/18
SEC PICKS: 23-3 SU 6-1 ATS +9.8U (85.7%)
OTHER PICKS: 7-3 SU 5-7 ATS -4.4U (41.7%)
TOTAL: 30-6 SU; 11-8 ATS +5.4 (57.9%)
SIDES: 8-5 +5.9U
TOTALS: 3-3 -.5U
1 UNIT PLAYS: 3-2 +.8
2 UNIT PLAYS: 6-4 +3.2
3 UNIT PLAYS: 1-2 -3.6U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 1-0 +5U
WEEK 1: 5-3 +3.4U
WEEK 2: 6-5 +2U
SEC PICKS
ALL GAMES WITH NO LINES
KENTUCKY vs MURRAY STATE – UK 45-17
VANDERBILT + 14.5 @ NOTRE DAME (3 UNITS) – I had this one circled immediately when I saw this line. Vandy has the defense to match ND and I simply don’t trust Wimbush as much as I do Schurmur to protect the ball. If the Irish turn it over like they did last week to Ball State this will be an upset. I think the Irish survive but barely. NOTRE DAME 23 VANDERBILT 17
TENNESSEE -30.5 vs UTEP (NO PLAY) – I have a hard time laying this many points with this Vols team…although if there ever was a time…this would be it. UTEP is one of the worst teams in division 1 and UTEP can’t throw and will be behind so that isn’t a good recipe for an upset. Vols should roll in this one. TENNESSEE 42 UTEP 10
AUBURN -10 vs LSU (1 UNIT) – Hard not to take the points in a game like this one. LSU’s defense will have to slow down Auburn’s offense, which I think they will for the most part but I think Stidham will make enough plays in the end to get the win at home. AUBURN 27 LSU 20
FLORIDA -20 vs COLORADO STATE (NO PLAY) – I would like the take the points here as I don’t think this Gator team should be this big of a favorite. I would take Carter-Samuels over Franks but the problem is he will be going up against the Gator D. UK was able to run on Florida which CSU will not be able to do and that will play right into hands of the Gators. FLORIDA 35 COLORADO STATE 17
ARKANSAS -7 vs NORTH TEXAS (2 UNITS) – things are about to go from bad to worse in Fayetteville. After blowing a big lead in Fort Collins the high flying Mean Green come to town. I think Mason Fine will light up the Arkansas D and I haven’t really been impressed with the Arkansas offense. This could be a shootout which favors the Mean Green. NORTH TEXAS 35 ARKANSAS 30
ALABAMA -21 @ MISSISSIPPI (NO PLAY) – Bama has pretty much looked unbeatable and I was tempted to take the points here but Ole Miss has probably one of the best WR cores in the country and could give the Bama secondary a pretty good test. If they can limit the turnovers then I think they could hang around in this one. I could also just see Bama rolling…so I’m going to stay away from this one. ALABAMA 42 MISSISSIPPI 24
GEORGA -33.5 vs MIDDLE TENNESSE STATE (1 UNIT OVER 54) – MTSU has the offense to hang for a bit but I don’t see how their D slows down UGA at all. I think this number ends up being about right. Dawgs control the game and roll to an easy win and could cover the over by themselves. GEORGIA 52 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE -33 vs LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (NO PLAY) – ULL has had 2 weeks to prepare for this one but I don’t think they have the firepower to keep up in this one. Fitzgerald has another solid day as the Bulldogs roll. MISSISSIPPI STATE 48 LOUSIANA LAFAYETTE 13
TEXAS A&M -26.5 vs LOUISANA MONROE (1 UNIT) – could be a little hangover here for the Aggies this week after the tough loss to Clemson last week and ULM is good enough to give the Aggies a game if they aren’t careful. Aggies come out sluggish but wake up in the second half to pull away but ULM covers. TEXAS A&M 35 LOUISIANA MONROE 17
SOUTH CAROLINA -12 vs MARSHALL (NO PLAY) – very dangerous game here for the Gamecocks. After a disappointing loss to UGA they better not be sleepwalking in this one. Marshall has enough firepower to win this game. In the end though I think SC’s D will just be enough to carry them through but it won’t be easy. SOUTH CAROLINA 23 MARSHALL 17
MIZZOU -7 @ PURDUE (3 UNITS) – Call me a homer, whatever you want but I have a pretty good feeling about this one. I was a lot more worried going into last years game than I am this year (obviously was warranted). Other than Mizzou hurting themselves I just don’t see how Purdue will slow them down consistently, and hurting themselves is not something they have been doing this year. On defense for the Tigers the key will be to slow down Moore. Purdue will be amped early as they really need this win. Moore will get his yards but in the end I think the Tigers weathers the early storm and then takes control of the game to get a road win against a desperate Purdue team. MIZZOU 45 PURDUE 23
OTHER GAMES I LIKE
SYRACUSE +3 vs FLORIDA STATE (2 UNITS)– wrong team favored in this one. Syracuse will finally be playing a defense with a pulse but the Seminoles pass D has surprisingly been torched so far this year. I think that continues this week with Dungy and company. I think he throws for 300 and the Cuse win this one. SYRACUSE 34 FLORIDA STATE 31
OKLAHOMA -17.5 vs IOWA STATE (3 UNITS) – yes ISU is dangerous and yes they pulled off the upset over the Sooners..but that is why it won’t happen this time. That along with the fact that Kempt may or may not play and will not be at 100% if he does. The Sooners will be focused and the Cyclones will have their full attention which will not be good for the Cyclones. OKLAHOMA 45 IOWA STATE 17
OHIO +4 @ VIRGINIA (being played in Nashville) (1 UNIT) – line movement play here…77% percent of the bets are on Virginia and the line has moved from -6 to -3.5 (I got it at 4). Virginia couldn’t stop the ground game of Indiana and that will be problematic against the Bobcats as well. OHIO 23 VIRGINIA 20
BOISE STATE @ OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 63.5 (2 UNITS) – I’m not sure who ends up winning this game but in the end I think both teams will be in the upper 30’s to 40’s so I’m just going to take the over and watch the fireworks. OKLAHOMA STATE 42 BOISTE STATE 38
BUFFALO -3 vs EASTERN MICHIGAN (2 UNITS) – Nice win by EMU last week at Purdue. Buffalo offense will just be too much this week and will cash in in the red zone which is something Purdue couldn’t do last week. BUFFALO 38 EASTERN MICHIGAN 27
FRESNO STATE -1.5 @ UCLA (1 UNIT) – Bruins can’t score and Fresno doesn’t give up points. That isn’t a good combination. UCLA’s woe’s continue with a home loss to the Bulldogs. FRESNO STATE 24 UCLA 16
Edited by qbbearcat at 09:27:17 on 09/13/18
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WEEK 3 SEC picks and other games... - qbbearcat MU - 9/13 09:26:37
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