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A better analysis from NYT
Posted on: December 13, 2017 at 14:47:18 CT
Spanky KU
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1) Nearly everyone who takes the standard deduction gets a tax cut in 2018
2) Families with children generally get a bigger tax cut
3) People who pay a lot in state and local taxes could see big tax increases
The tax analysis is confined exclusively to middle-class households, defined as households that earn two-thirds to two times household-size adjusted median income. That’s roughly $40,000 to $125,000 for a family of four, or about $30,000 to $90,000 for a couple. For singles, the middle class starts at about $20,000, although to make the charts more readable, we aren’t showing households earning less than $40,000. (We’re using what tax analysts call “expanded income,” which includes cash income but also noncash items such as employer contributions to health insurance and the employer share of payroll taxes.)
To figure out how the Senate bill would affect households, we worked with the Open Source Policy Center — a Washington research organization affiliated with the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute — to model the proposal using the center’s TaxBrain program. Special thanks to Ernie Tedeschi, an economist and occasional Upshot contributor, for his thoughts on modeling the impact of the corporate tax cuts.
The data we’re using comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, which asks tens of thousands of Americans detailed questions about their household finances every year. Although these records are not as accurate as the administrative I.R.S. tax records that some think tanks like the Tax Policy Center use (particularly regarding the wealthiest Americans), they line up reasonably closely. The Open Source Policy Center adjusted the data to align with I.R.S. definitions of income; the center also ran parts of our analysis using data from the I.R.S. to ensure that the findings held up.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
2) Families with children generally get a bigger tax cut
3) People who pay a lot in state and local taxes could see big tax increases
The tax analysis is confined exclusively to middle-class households, defined as households that earn two-thirds to two times household-size adjusted median income. That’s roughly $40,000 to $125,000 for a family of four, or about $30,000 to $90,000 for a couple. For singles, the middle class starts at about $20,000, although to make the charts more readable, we aren’t showing households earning less than $40,000. (We’re using what tax analysts call “expanded income,” which includes cash income but also noncash items such as employer contributions to health insurance and the employer share of payroll taxes.)
To figure out how the Senate bill would affect households, we worked with the Open Source Policy Center — a Washington research organization affiliated with the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute — to model the proposal using the center’s TaxBrain program. Special thanks to Ernie Tedeschi, an economist and occasional Upshot contributor, for his thoughts on modeling the impact of the corporate tax cuts.
The data we’re using comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, which asks tens of thousands of Americans detailed questions about their household finances every year. Although these records are not as accurate as the administrative I.R.S. tax records that some think tanks like the Tax Policy Center use (particularly regarding the wealthiest Americans), they line up reasonably closely. The Open Source Policy Center adjusted the data to align with I.R.S. definitions of income; the center also ran parts of our analysis using data from the I.R.S. to ensure that the findings held up.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
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A better analysis from NYT - Spanky KU - 12/13 14:47:18