Here is my position on your narrative:

Posted on: June 14, 2017 at 13:39:03 CT

Ted Cruz said, "Here’s the simple and undeniable fact: The overwhelming majority of violent criminals are Democrats."

Research cited by the Cruz campaign supports the claim that, in at least three states (a small group, not statistically significant), felons released from prison go on to register as Democrats at a disproportionately high rate following their release.

However, there are important caveats. The study in question looked at both violent and nonviolent felons without separating out those two groups. It’s not clear whether the patterns holds in the other 47 states. Also, the study didn’t look at active "criminals" but rather those who had already served their time. Finally, it’s hard to draw a line between cause and effect, particularly given the disproportionately high population of African-Americans -- a traditionally Democratic group -- in the criminal justice system.

And despite all of that, the party that is FOR criminal justice reform is the Democratic Party. Therefore, anyone who thinks the for-profit prison system could be better, and has seen it in person, may just vote Democrat. There are too many confounding issues to provide a CAUSAL relationship.

Correlation does not imply causation, and therefore, your narrative cannot be proven.