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Some Mizzou softball RPI numbers...
Posted on: April 27, 2017 at 19:35:13 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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Mizzou checks in this week with an RPI score of .60486, or about 60.49%. That's good for a ranking of 31 in the nation. In the initial RPI release on March 19, 5 weeks ago, we were at .57987, or 57.99%. We then had a huge increase in our RPI score after the week that we went 1-2 at TAMU, a monster increase the next week after taking 2/3 against Alabama, a moderate decrease after going 1-2 against Arkansas, a moderate increase after going 1-2 at Auburn, and a huge decrease after going 0-3 against Kentucky last weekend. Just using those SEC series as anchor points, obviously we had midweek games that affected our RPI score too. Still we are up about 2.5 % points in the last 5 weeks, good for an increased rank from 44 in the opening week to 31 today. Our high point was after the Bama series when we were at 61.46% and our rank was 25.
To compare with 2016, we entered the first RPI release with a ranking of 10, and a percentage of 66.41%. We went slightly up and down through the rest of the season and ended a little higher with a percentage of 66.55%, and a ranking of 11.
It's always hard to predict how much we will rise or fall each week, but one factor is how close teams are bunched up right above us and right below us with their scores.
Sitting at #31 in the ranking this week, we are a moderate distance from #30 Tulsa, who is in pretty much a dead heat with #29 Texas State. Then Texas State is a moderate distance from #28 Georgia, who is bunched up very tightly with the 3 teams above them, 27 Ole Miss, 26 Arkansas, and 25 Marshall. Which tells me we at least have a chance to rise as high as about #25 in the ranking by the end of the year with a strong finish, but probably not more. So much depends also on what those other teams ahead of us do.
On the other end, behind us, #32 Miss State is a more significant distance behind us, then #33 North Carolina and #34 Texas are very close behind them. #35 Oklahoma State is a moderate distance behind Texas, but they are virtually in a dead heat with 36 Ohio State and #37 Lipscomb. So with a very poor finish, I think the furthest we fall in the ranking is to #37.
So my guess is the range goes from 25-37, with the better likelihood being a range of 29-34. If we stay in that range we should be ok, as long as we have at least a .500 record after the SEC tournament. Which is not a given at this point. We have a ton of losses, and could finish the regular season very poorly, which the selection committee takes into account. But the other metrics the committee uses favor us. We have an excellent SOS right now, 11 in the nation. And our opponents SOS is ranked 8 this week. We have played 20 games already against top 25 RPI teams, more than anyone in the country except UCLA, I believe, and are a respectable 7-13 in those games. And we could end up with between 23 and 26 total games played against top 25 RPI teams, depending on whether current #27 Ole Miss sneaks into the top 25 by the end of the season.
And none of the 10-12 non-SEC teams we will be fighting for the last at large bids have anything close to the significant wins we have against Washington, Auburn, TAMU, Alabama (twice), and James Madison.
You just can't overstate though how critical it is that we take at least 2/6 of the remaining SEC games. Go 1-5 or 0-6 in those games and we are begging the committee to eff us over. They won't admit it but they will feel pressure to not include all 13 SEC teams in the tournament, even though today, all 13 would qualify by their stated criteria.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 19:38:58 on 04/27/17
To compare with 2016, we entered the first RPI release with a ranking of 10, and a percentage of 66.41%. We went slightly up and down through the rest of the season and ended a little higher with a percentage of 66.55%, and a ranking of 11.
It's always hard to predict how much we will rise or fall each week, but one factor is how close teams are bunched up right above us and right below us with their scores.
Sitting at #31 in the ranking this week, we are a moderate distance from #30 Tulsa, who is in pretty much a dead heat with #29 Texas State. Then Texas State is a moderate distance from #28 Georgia, who is bunched up very tightly with the 3 teams above them, 27 Ole Miss, 26 Arkansas, and 25 Marshall. Which tells me we at least have a chance to rise as high as about #25 in the ranking by the end of the year with a strong finish, but probably not more. So much depends also on what those other teams ahead of us do.
On the other end, behind us, #32 Miss State is a more significant distance behind us, then #33 North Carolina and #34 Texas are very close behind them. #35 Oklahoma State is a moderate distance behind Texas, but they are virtually in a dead heat with 36 Ohio State and #37 Lipscomb. So with a very poor finish, I think the furthest we fall in the ranking is to #37.
So my guess is the range goes from 25-37, with the better likelihood being a range of 29-34. If we stay in that range we should be ok, as long as we have at least a .500 record after the SEC tournament. Which is not a given at this point. We have a ton of losses, and could finish the regular season very poorly, which the selection committee takes into account. But the other metrics the committee uses favor us. We have an excellent SOS right now, 11 in the nation. And our opponents SOS is ranked 8 this week. We have played 20 games already against top 25 RPI teams, more than anyone in the country except UCLA, I believe, and are a respectable 7-13 in those games. And we could end up with between 23 and 26 total games played against top 25 RPI teams, depending on whether current #27 Ole Miss sneaks into the top 25 by the end of the season.
And none of the 10-12 non-SEC teams we will be fighting for the last at large bids have anything close to the significant wins we have against Washington, Auburn, TAMU, Alabama (twice), and James Madison.
You just can't overstate though how critical it is that we take at least 2/6 of the remaining SEC games. Go 1-5 or 0-6 in those games and we are begging the committee to eff us over. They won't admit it but they will feel pressure to not include all 13 SEC teams in the tournament, even though today, all 13 would qualify by their stated criteria.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 19:38:58 on 04/27/17
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Some Mizzou softball RPI numbers... - bluetiger_ MU - 4/27 19:35:13