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Some realities on the political scene.
Posted on: December 4, 2016 at 13:19:17 CT
GA Tiger MU
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But I never expected any big changes in anything. That reduces disappointment.
Under the “zombie budget” deal struck a year ago between President Obama and House Speaker Paul Ryan, Uncle Sam’s debt ceiling was suspended. We were spared any debt-ceiling showdowns between the White House and Congress this year. The national debt has drifted ever higher, to $19.3 trillion this week.
The debt ceiling once again kicks in on March 15 of next year. The moment Trump takes office, he’ll have 55 days in which to cut a deal with Congress to raise the ceiling well past $20 trillion. His $1 trillion public-works program won’t happen without it. Nor will the tax cuts he’s proposed.
“The debt ceiling expiration is the skunk currently slinking around in the woodpile,” says David Stockman. “It will lead to an immediate crisis of governance and one or more government shutdowns early next spring.
“It will also lead to an ugly round of hostage-taking the Donald and his New York inner circle have not even begun to fathom.”
Yes, the president has a majority in both houses of Congress. But it’s more tenuous than you might think. “The GOP Senate majority is razor thin (52-48) and deeply divided by regional interest and ideological differences,” David reminds us. Democrats can easily stymie any legislation with the threat of a filibuster that requires 60 votes to break. “They will adopt the same playbook as the GOP did during the Obama era — bash, battle and block the entirety of the White House’s agenda.”
And in the House, the deficit-hawk tea partiers will make Speaker Ryan’s task of rounding up a majority akin to herding cats — although David tells us he prefers the analogy of a circular firing squad, heh. Ryan needed the help of Democrats to pass a suspension of the debt ceiling a year ago; they’ll be much less inclined to help with a Republican in the White House.
“Washington will be paralyzed for months — even years — after the inauguration,” David goes on.
“There will be no massive tax cut, no huge infrastructure initiative or any other variation of the ‘fiscal stimulus’ will-o’-the-wisp that seems to have sent the bond markets reeling and the stock averages to giddy flights of fantasy.
“Every block of votes Trump manages to wrangle for the debt ceiling increase will require a king’s ransom of compromises on everything he has promised to do in the first 100 days.
“President Trump may even be forced to back off from his promise to kill Obamacare in order to get Democratic votes for the debt ceiling increase. And that’s because there is not a chance in the world that tea party Republicans will go along with the idea that an election earthquake happened only so they could vote for trillions more of public debt as their first order of business.
“The stock market will swoon when it becomes clear that the Imperial City is descending into ungovernable political chaos and gridlock. And that is virtually guaranteed.”
Under the “zombie budget” deal struck a year ago between President Obama and House Speaker Paul Ryan, Uncle Sam’s debt ceiling was suspended. We were spared any debt-ceiling showdowns between the White House and Congress this year. The national debt has drifted ever higher, to $19.3 trillion this week.
The debt ceiling once again kicks in on March 15 of next year. The moment Trump takes office, he’ll have 55 days in which to cut a deal with Congress to raise the ceiling well past $20 trillion. His $1 trillion public-works program won’t happen without it. Nor will the tax cuts he’s proposed.
“The debt ceiling expiration is the skunk currently slinking around in the woodpile,” says David Stockman. “It will lead to an immediate crisis of governance and one or more government shutdowns early next spring.
“It will also lead to an ugly round of hostage-taking the Donald and his New York inner circle have not even begun to fathom.”
Yes, the president has a majority in both houses of Congress. But it’s more tenuous than you might think. “The GOP Senate majority is razor thin (52-48) and deeply divided by regional interest and ideological differences,” David reminds us. Democrats can easily stymie any legislation with the threat of a filibuster that requires 60 votes to break. “They will adopt the same playbook as the GOP did during the Obama era — bash, battle and block the entirety of the White House’s agenda.”
And in the House, the deficit-hawk tea partiers will make Speaker Ryan’s task of rounding up a majority akin to herding cats — although David tells us he prefers the analogy of a circular firing squad, heh. Ryan needed the help of Democrats to pass a suspension of the debt ceiling a year ago; they’ll be much less inclined to help with a Republican in the White House.
“Washington will be paralyzed for months — even years — after the inauguration,” David goes on.
“There will be no massive tax cut, no huge infrastructure initiative or any other variation of the ‘fiscal stimulus’ will-o’-the-wisp that seems to have sent the bond markets reeling and the stock averages to giddy flights of fantasy.
“Every block of votes Trump manages to wrangle for the debt ceiling increase will require a king’s ransom of compromises on everything he has promised to do in the first 100 days.
“President Trump may even be forced to back off from his promise to kill Obamacare in order to get Democratic votes for the debt ceiling increase. And that’s because there is not a chance in the world that tea party Republicans will go along with the idea that an election earthquake happened only so they could vote for trillions more of public debt as their first order of business.
“The stock market will swoon when it becomes clear that the Imperial City is descending into ungovernable political chaos and gridlock. And that is virtually guaranteed.”
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Some realities on the political scene. - GA Tiger MU - 12/4 13:19:17