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4 states Trump needs to flip per latest 270towin polls...
Posted on: November 7, 2016 at 12:29:53 CT
JeffB MU
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Per the latest 270towin.com polls, with the usual caveats, Trump would need to win all of the states where he is currently leading + 3 states which have a 1% Hillary lean (well within the respective margins for error) and Alaska (tied) AND the 2nd District of Maine which also has a 1% Hillary lean.
Without the 2nd District of Maine, but all of the others, Trump would have 269 Electoral Votes & Hillary would theoretically have 269, but one elector from Washington state said he absolutely will not vote for her despite the $1,000 fine for not doing so, leaving her with 268. Another elector from Washington said he may not vote for her Either. Even though Trump would have half of the votes and more than Hillary, I think it would then go to the House of Representatives to vote on the winner.
With the 2nd District of Maine and all of the states in Gold below Trump would win it all and be the net president.
Edited by JeffB at 12:31:04 on 11/07/16
Without the 2nd District of Maine, but all of the others, Trump would have 269 Electoral Votes & Hillary would theoretically have 269, but one elector from Washington state said he absolutely will not vote for her despite the $1,000 fine for not doing so, leaving her with 268. Another elector from Washington said he may not vote for her Either. Even though Trump would have half of the votes and more than Hillary, I think it would then go to the House of Representatives to vote on the winner.
With the 2nd District of Maine and all of the states in Gold below Trump would win it all and be the net president.
State EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary MoE date EV EV poll
# % % % % lean Trump Hillary
DC * 3 90 10 80 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 56 26 7 30 5.00% 11/04/16 525 24 Western New England U
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 507 34 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 504 38 Emerson College
California 55 53 33 7 20 11/03/16 500 93 Field Poll UC Berkeley
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 445 105 Elway Poll
New York 29 51 34 8 17 4.50% 11/06/16 433 134 Siena College
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 397 155 Fairleigh Dickenson
Illinois 20 49 37.5 8.5 8.4 11/01/16 383 175 Emerson College/Loras College
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 363 185 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Oregon 7 41 34 25 7 11/01/16 353 192 DHM Research
Wisconsin 10 44 38 9 6 4.40% 11/04/16 346 202 Loras College
Virginia 13 48 42 7 6 3.60% 11/07/16 336 215 Christopher Newport Univ
Maine 3 46 41 3 5 3.10% 11/06/16 323 218 Mitchell Research
New Mexico 5 45 40 1 5 4.4%% 11/06/16 320 223 Albuquerque Journal
Michigan 16 46 41 3 5 3.10% 11/06/16 315 239 Mitchell Research
Pennsylvania 20 44 40 7 4 5.50% 11/05/16 299 259 Morning Call/Mueling
Colorado 9 46.5 43.5 2.5 3 3.35% 11/04/16 279 268 Public Policy, Trafalgar Group
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43.5 42.5 17 1 3.45% 11/01/16 270 269 Emerson College/MPRC
New Hampshire 4 45 44 3 1 3.00% 11/07/16 269 273 Emerson College
Nevada 6 47 46 2 1 3.90% 11/07/16 265 279 Emerson College
North Carolina 15 45.5 44.5 7 1 3.35% 11/07/16 259 294 NYT Upshot/Sienna, Quinnipiac
Alaska 3 47 43 17 0 10/26/16 244 297 Cracium Research
Florida 29 46.7 47 3 -0.3 3.20% 11/07/16 241 326 Opinion Savvy, Quinnipiac, Trafalgar
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 212 332 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Georgia 16 45.5 48.5 1.5 -3 3.65% 11/04/16 206 348 Opinion Savvy/Landmarkcom
Iowa 6 41 45 7.5 -4 3.35% 11/05/16 190 354 Loras College, Selzer & Co
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 184 363 Winthrop University
Missouri 10 41 47 3 -6 3.50% 11/07/16 175 373 Emerson College
Ohio 18 39 46 5 -7 3.20% 11/07/16 165 391 Emerson College
Arizona 11 39 47 7 -8 4.10% 11/04/16 147 402 Data Orbital
Utah 6 24 33 10 -9 4.40% 11/04/16 136 408 Y2 Analytics
Texas 38 40 49 3 -9 3.80% 11/03/16 130 446 NBC/WSJ/Marist
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 92 449 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 89 455 SurveyUSA
Indiana 11 39 50 7 -11 10/31/16 83 466 Monmouth University
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 72 472 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 66 483 MTSU/Vanderbilt
South Dakota 3 35 49 9 -14 11/01/16 55 486 Nielson Brothers
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 52 494 University of New Orleans
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Kentucky 8 37 54 7 -17 11/01/16 41 505 Western Kentucky U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 33 509 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 29 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM Research
Edited by JeffB at 12:31:04 on 11/07/16
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4 states Trump needs to flip per latest 270towin polls... - JeffB MU - 11/7 12:29:53