The Senate’s A Toss-Up: A Race-By-Race Look
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-a-toss-up-a-race-by-race-look/
Basically saying,
IL,WI and PENN to Dems, OH, FL and AZ to GOP
But here's the oddball: Louisiana - Possible DEM pickup
Louisiana is something entirely different. The state will hold on a primary on Tuesday in which all the Democratic candidates and Republican candidates run against each other. As long as no candidate gets 50 percent (and there’s basically no chance of that happening), the two top vote getters regardless of party affiliation will advance to a runoff. It’s expected that one of those candidates will be Republican John Kennedy who leads in the polls. But Democrats Foster Campbell and Caroline Fayard are not too far behind Kennedy in second and third respectively. With five Republicans projected to get at least 4 percent of the vote, it’s possible that Republicans will split their vote enough that Kennedy drops to third and both Democrats end up advancing.