 |
|
Trump would need to win Florida and Colorado per
Posted on: November 6, 2016 at 01:23:23 CT
JeffB MU
Posts:
72164
Member For:
21.41 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
latest polls on 270towin.com with all the usual caveats about the accuracy of the polls etc.
Per those polls, Florida is leaning 4% Hillary's way & Colorado is leaning 3% her way, however. If he did win those he would not need either Alaska (tied) or Maine's 2nd District (1% Hillary lean)
Alternatively, he could lose Florida and win Pennsylvania, also a 4% Hillary lean, but if that happened Trump would also need to win both Alaska and Maine's 2nd District to squeak by with a 270 delegate vote to win it all.
Pennsylvania +4% Hillary has a +/- 5.5% margin of error
Florida +4% Hillary has a +/- 4% margin of error.
Colorado +3% Hillary has a +/- 3.35% margin of error.
Maine 2nd District +1% Hillary has a +/- 3.45% margin of error
The polls in those swing states have been tending to swing, oddly enough, from poll to poll.
Per those polls, Florida is leaning 4% Hillary's way & Colorado is leaning 3% her way, however. If he did win those he would not need either Alaska (tied) or Maine's 2nd District (1% Hillary lean)
Alternatively, he could lose Florida and win Pennsylvania, also a 4% Hillary lean, but if that happened Trump would also need to win both Alaska and Maine's 2nd District to squeak by with a 270 delegate vote to win it all.
Pennsylvania +4% Hillary has a +/- 5.5% margin of error
Florida +4% Hillary has a +/- 4% margin of error.
Colorado +3% Hillary has a +/- 3.35% margin of error.
Maine 2nd District +1% Hillary has a +/- 3.45% margin of error
The polls in those swing states have been tending to swing, oddly enough, from poll to poll.
State EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary MoE date EV EV poll
# % % % % lean Trump Hillary n/a
DC * 3 90 10 80 n/a 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 56 26 7 30 5.00% 11/04/16 525 24 Western New England Ut
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
New York 29 54 30 7 24 10/19/16 507 60 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 478 63 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 475 67 Emerson College
California 55 53 33 7 20 11/03/16 471 122 Field Poll UC Berkeley
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 397 155 Fairleigh Dickenson
Illinois 20 49 37.5 8.5 8.4 11/01/16 383 175 Emerson College/Loras College
New Mexico 5 41 33 3 8 10/18/16 363 180 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 358 190 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Oregon 7 41 34 25 7 11/01/16 348 197 DHM Research
Wisconsin 10 44 38 9 6 4.40% 11/04/16 341 207 Loras College
Virginia 13 46.5 40.5 7 6 3.35% 11/04/16 331 220 Roanoake College, Public Policy
Maine 3 44 39.5 7 4.5 11/01/16 318 223 Emerson College/MPRC
Michigan 16 44 39.5 10 4.5 3.35% 11/04/16 315 239 Epic-MRA, Public Policy
Pennsylvania 20 44 40 7 4 5.50% 11/05/16 299 259 Morning Call/Mueling
Florida 29 49 45 2 4 4.00% 11/03/16 279 288 Opinion Savvy
Colorado 9 46.5 43.5 2.5 3 3.35% 11/04/16 250 297 Public Policy, Trafalgar Group
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43.5 42.5 17 1 3.45% 11/01/16 241 298 Emerson College/MPRC
Alaska 3 47 43 17 0 10/26/16 240 301 Cracium Research
New Hampshire 4 41.3 43.3 7 -2 4.27% 11/03/16 237 305 WBUR, ARG, Suffolk
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 233 311 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nevada 6 44 47 3.5 -3 3.75% 11/02/16 227 317 CNN/ORC, JMC Analytics
Georgia 16 45.5 48.5 1.5 -3 3.65% 11/04/16 221 333 Opinion Savvy/Landmarkcom
North Carolina 15 43 46.5 7.5 -3.5 11/01/16 205 348 Elon University/SurveyUSA
Iowa 6 41 45 7.5 -4 3.35% 11/05/16 190 354 Loras College, Selzer & Co
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 184 363 Winthrop University
Ohio 18 43 48 6 -5 10/31/16 175 381 Remington Research
Arizona 11 39 47 7 -8 4.10% 11/04/16 157 392 Data Orbital
Utah 6 24 33 10 -9 4.40% 11/04/16 146 398 Y2 Analytics
Texas 38 40 49 3 -9 3.80% 11/03/16 140 436 NBC/WSJ/Marist
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 102 439 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 99 445 SurveyUSA
Indiana 11 39 50 7 -11 10/31/16 93 456 Monmouth University
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 82 462 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 76 473 MTSU/Vanderbilt
South Dakota 3 35 49 9 -14 11/01/16 65 476 Nielson Brothers
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 62 484 University of New Orleans
Missouri 10 37 52 4 -15 3.80% 11/02/16 54 494 Emerson College
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Kentucky 8 37 54 7 -17 11/01/16 41 505 Western Kentucky U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 33 509 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 29 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM Research
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
Trump would need to win Florida and Colorado per - JeffB MU - 11/6 01:23:23