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Trump has a little easier road to victory, per newer polls.
Posted on: November 4, 2016 at 16:35:11 CT
JeffB MU
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Per the newest polls on 270towin.com Trump no longer needs Florida to win. He needs to win all of the states he is favored in plus Alaska & Pennsylvania, where he is tied, the 2nd District of Maine where Hillary has a 1% lead and Colorado with a 3% Hillary lean (but a 3.35% margin of error).
If he loses Colorado, he could make up for it by winning either Florida (+4% Hillary) or Michigan (+4.5% Hillary) to make up the difference. Both have higher electoral vote counts so picking up either of those in lieu of Colorado would allow him to also lose Maine's 2nd District (1 EV) and Alaska (tied - 3 EV).
Edited by JeffB at 17:16:59 on 11/04/16
If he loses Colorado, he could make up for it by winning either Florida (+4% Hillary) or Michigan (+4.5% Hillary) to make up the difference. Both have higher electoral vote counts so picking up either of those in lieu of Colorado would allow him to also lose Maine's 2nd District (1 EV) and Alaska (tied - 3 EV).
State EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary MoE date EV EV poll
# % % % % lean Trump Hillary
DC * 3 90 10 80 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 56 26 7 30 5.00% 11/04/16 525 24 Western New England U
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
New York 29 54 30 7 24 10/19/16 507 60 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 478 63 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 475 67 Emerson College
California 55 53 33 7 20 11/03/16 471 122 Field Poll UC Berkeley
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 397 155 Fairleigh Dickenson
Illinois 20 49 37.5 8.5 8.4 11/01/16 383 175 Emerson College/Loras College
New Mexico 5 41 33 3 8 10/18/16 363 180 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 358 190 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Oregon 7 41 34 25 7 11/01/16 348 197 DHM Research
Wisconsin 10 44 38 9 6 4.40% 11/04/16 341 207 Loras College
Virginia 13 46.5 40.5 7 6 3.35% 11/04/16 331 220 Roanoake College, Public Policy
Maine 3 44 39.5 7 4.5 11/01/16 318 223 Emerson College/MPRC
Michigan 16 44 39.5 10 4.5 3.35% 11/04/16 315 239 Epic-MRA, Public Policy
Florida 29 49 45 2 4 4.00% 11/03/16 299 268 Opinion Savvy
Colorado 9 46.5 43.5 2.5 3 3.35% 11/04/16 270 277 Public Policy, Trafalgar Group
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43.5 42.5 17 1 3.45% 11/01/16 261 278 Emerson College/MPRC
Alaska 3 47 43 17 0 10/26/16 260 281 Cracium Research
Pennsylvania 20 46 46 5 0 4.40% 11/04/16 257 301 Harper Polling
New Hampshire 4 41.3 43.3 7 -2 4.27% 11/03/16 237 305 WBUR, ARG, Suffolk
Iowa 6 41 44 6 -3 3.60% 11/04/16 233 311 Emerson College
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 227 317 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nevada 6 44 47 3.5 -3 3.75% 11/02/16 221 323 CNN/ORC, JMC Analytics
Georgia 16 45.5 48.5 1.5 -3 3.65% 11/04/16 215 339 Opinion Savvy/Landmarkcom
North Carolina 15 43 46.5 7.5 -3.5 11/01/16 199 354 Elon University/SurveyUSA
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 184 363 Winthrop University
Ohio 18 43 48 6 -5 10/31/16 175 381 Remington Research
Arizona 11 39 47 7 -8 4.10% 11/04/16 157 392 Data Orbital
Utah 6 24 33 10 -9 4.40% 11/04/16 146 398 Y2 Analytics
Texas 38 40 49 3 -9 3.80% 11/03/16 140 436 NBC/WSJ/Marist
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 102 439 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 99 445 SurveyUSA
Indiana 11 39 50 7 -11 10/31/16 93 456 Monmouth University
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 82 462 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 76 473 MTSU/Vanderbilt
South Dakota 3 35 49 9 -14 11/01/16 65 476 Nielson Brothers
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 62 484 University of New Orleans
Missouri 10 37 52 4 -15 3.80% 11/02/16 54 494 Emerson College
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Kentucky 8 37 54 7 -17 11/01/16 41 505 Western Kentucky U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 33 509 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 29 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM ResearchEdited by JeffB at 17:16:59 on 11/04/16
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Trump has a little easier road to victory, per newer polls. - JeffB MU - 11/4 16:35:11