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Trump needs 2 states + the ones he's leading in to win it.
Posted on: November 4, 2016 at 14:19:41 CT
JeffB MU
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Per the latest polls on 270towin.com
http://www.270towin.com/recent-polls-2016-president-senate/
The most likely scenario if he is to win, given the usual caveats, is to win the states where he's leading + Pennsylvania (+3.7% average Hillary lean) AND Florida (+4% Hillary lean per the Opinion Savvy poll).
Although Alaska (tied) & Maine's 2nd District (+1 Hillary lean) should theoretically be easier for him to win than those two, they really are irrelevant in this scenario. Their 4 electoral votes would not swing the election regardless of which way they went.
Edited by JeffB at 14:48:21 on 11/04/16
http://www.270towin.com/recent-polls-2016-president-senate/
The most likely scenario if he is to win, given the usual caveats, is to win the states where he's leading + Pennsylvania (+3.7% average Hillary lean) AND Florida (+4% Hillary lean per the Opinion Savvy poll).
Although Alaska (tied) & Maine's 2nd District (+1 Hillary lean) should theoretically be easier for him to win than those two, they really are irrelevant in this scenario. Their 4 electoral votes would not swing the election regardless of which way they went.
State EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary MoE date EV EV poll
# % % % % lean Trump Hillary
DC * 3 90 10 80 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 57 25 11 32 10/27/16 525 24 Suffolk University
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
New York 29 54 30 7 24 10/19/16 507 60 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 478 63 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 475 67 Emerson College
California 55 53 33 7 20 11/03/16 471 122 Field Poll UC Berkeley
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 397 155 Fairleigh Dickenson
Illinois 20 49 37.5 8.5 8.4 11/01/16 383 175 Emerson College/Loras College
New Mexico 5 41 33 3 8 10/18/16 363 180 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 358 190 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Oregon 7 41 34 25 7 11/01/16 348 197 DHM Research
Virginia 13 45 38 10 7 3.80% 11/04/16 341 210 Roanoake College
Michigan 16 50 43 2 7 11/01/16 328 226 Mitchell Research
Colorado 9 44 38 9 6 4.40% 11/03/16 312 235 Magellen Strategies
Wisconsin 10 44 38 9 6 4.40% 11/04/16 303 245 Marquette Law
Maine 3 44 39.5 7 4.5 11/01/16 293 248 Emerson College/MPRC
Florida 29 49 45 2 4 4.00% 11/03/16 290 277 Opinion Savvy
Pennsylvania 20 48 44.3 7.7 3.7 4.07% 11/02/16 261 297 CNN/ORC, Monmouth, Susquehanna
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43.5 42.5 17 1 3.45% 11/01/16 241 298 Emerson College/MPRC
Alaska 3 47 43 17 0 10/26/16 240 301 Cracium Research
Georgia 16 44 45 3 -1 3.70% 11/03/16 237 317 NBC/WSJ/Marist
New Hampshire 4 41.3 43.3 7 -2 4.27% 11/03/16 221 321 WBUR, ARG, Suffolk
Iowa 6 41 44 6 -3 3.60% 11/04/16 217 327 Emerson College
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 211 333 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nevada 6 44 47 3.5 -3 3.75% 11/02/16 205 339 CNN/ORC, JMC Analytics
North Carolina 15 43 46.5 7.5 -3.5 11/01/16 199 354 Elon University/SurveyUSA
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 184 363 Winthrop University
Arizona 11 40 45 3 -5 3.70% 11/03/16 175 374 NBC/WSJ/Marist
Ohio 18 43 48 6 -5 10/31/16 164 392 Remington Research
Utah 6 31 39.5 3 -8.5 4.45% 11/03/16 146 398 Monmouth University/Rassmussen
Texas 38 40 49 3 -9 3.80% 11/03/16 140 436 NBC/WSJ/Marist
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 102 439 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 99 445 SurveyUSA
Indiana 11 39 50 7 -11 10/31/16 93 456 Monmouth University
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 82 462 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 76 473 MTSU/Vanderbilt
South Dakota 3 35 49 9 -14 11/01/16 65 476 Nielson Brothers
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 62 484 University of New Orleans
Missouri 10 37 52 4 -15 3.80% 11/02/16 54 494 Emerson College
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Kentucky 8 37 54 7 -17 11/01/16 41 505 Western Kentucky U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 33 509 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 29 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM Research
Edited by JeffB at 14:48:21 on 11/04/16
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Trump needs 2 states + the ones he's leading in to win it. - JeffB MU - 11/4 14:19:41