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interesting last paragraph.
Posted on: November 1, 2016 at 08:44:22 CT
markymarksthirdnipple STL
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/
There’s one big qualification: Our model doesn’t account for any sort of ground game advantage for Clinton in the swing states, other than to the extent that advantage is reflected in the polls. That could make a split a bit less likely than our model infers. Still, Trump’s coalition of white voters without college degrees are overrepresented in swing states, especially in the Midwest, while Clinton’s voters are not.
There’s one big qualification: Our model doesn’t account for any sort of ground game advantage for Clinton in the swing states, other than to the extent that advantage is reflected in the polls. That could make a split a bit less likely than our model infers. Still, Trump’s coalition of white voters without college degrees are overrepresented in swing states, especially in the Midwest, while Clinton’s voters are not.
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interesting last paragraph. - markymarksthirdnipple STL - 11/1 08:44:22
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