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Trump would need to flip 1 state & win one that they're tied
Posted on: October 31, 2016 at 16:53:58 CT
JeffB MU
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to win per 270towin.com
It looks like the FBI development has had a significant effect on the race based upon the 9 newest polls that came out today on 270towin.com's site.
Given the usual caveats about the polls' accuracy etc. Trump would need to win Iowa which is still tied, but the most recent poll listed was posted on 10/27/16 & doesn't reflect her latest scandal update, and Colorado, which currently has Hillary with a 1% lean.
Those two states in addition to the ones where he is currently favored by the polls would give him 274 electoral votes, 4 more than are needed to win.
It looks like the FBI development has had a significant effect on the race based upon the 9 newest polls that came out today on 270towin.com's site.
Given the usual caveats about the polls' accuracy etc. Trump would need to win Iowa which is still tied, but the most recent poll listed was posted on 10/27/16 & doesn't reflect her latest scandal update, and Colorado, which currently has Hillary with a 1% lean.
Those two states in addition to the ones where he is currently favored by the polls would give him 274 electoral votes, 4 more than are needed to win.
% % % % lean EV EV
State # EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary date Trump Hillary poll
DC * 3 90 10 0 80 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 57 25 11 32 10/27/16 525 24 Suffolk University
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
California 55 54 28 8 26 10/27/16 507 86 PPIC
New York 29 54 30 7 24 10/19/16 452 115 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 423 118 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 420 122 Emerson College
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
Illinois 20 51 36 5 15 10/24/16 397 161 Victory Research
Maine 3 48 37 7 11 10/30/16 377 164 UNH Survey Center
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 374 178 Fairleigh Dickenson
Oregon 7 46 36 8 10 10/18/16 360 185 KGW/Oregonian
New Mexico 5 41 33 3 8 10/18/16 353 190 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 348 200 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Michigan 16 50 43 1 7 10/28/16 338 216 Emerson College
Virginia 13 48 43 6 5 10/31/16 322 229 Remington Research
Wisconsin 10 46 42 8 4 10/31/16 309 239 Remington Research
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43 40 17 3 10/30/16 299 240 UNH Survey Center
New Hampshire 4 46 43 3 3 10/28/16 298 244 Emerson College
Pennsylvania 20 45 43 9 2 10/31/16 294 264 Remington Research
Colorado 9 45 44 7 1 10/31/16 274 273 Remington Research
Iowa 6 44 44 7 0 10/27/16 265 279 Quinnipiac
Alaska 3 36 37 17 -1 10/16/16 259 282 Lake Research
Arizona 11 42 44 9 -2 10/30/16 256 293 YouGov/CBS
North Carolina 15 45 47 6 -2 10/31/16 245 308 Remington Research
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 230 314 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Texas 38 42 45 4 -3 10/27/16 224 352 University of Texas
Nevada 6 44 48 4 -4 10/31/16 186 358 Remington Research
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 180 367 Winthrop University
Florida 29 44 48 6 -4 10/31/16 171 396 Remington Research
Missouri 10 42 47 7 -5 10/27/16 142 406 Mason-Dixon
Ohio 18 43 48 6 -5 10/31/16 132 424 Remington Research
South Dakota 3 37 44 12 -7 10/25/16 103 438 Mason-Dixon
Georgia 16 42 49 6 -7 10/27/16 100 454 SurveyUSA
Utah 6 24 32 9 -8 10/30/16 84 460 Dan Jones & Assoc.
Indiana 11 39 50 7 -11 10/31/16 114 435 Monmouth University
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 78 463 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 75 469 SurveyUSA
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 69 475 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 63 486 MTSU/Vanderbilt
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 52 494 University of New Orleans
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 41 501 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 37 510 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Kentucky 8 29 52 7 -23 09/06/16 28 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM Research
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Trump would need to flip 1 state & win one that they're tied - JeffB MU - 10/31 16:53:58