 |
|
States Trump needs to flip to win per electoralvote.com
Posted on: October 30, 2016 at 16:56:40 CT
JeffB MU
Posts:
72181
Member For:
21.42 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
I don't think today's new polls include any calls since the FBI reopened Hillary's email crime file again.
With the usual caveats it would look like Trump would need to win Iowa & Ohio where they're tied, as well as the next 3 with a Hillary lean: Nevada 2%, Colorado 3%, North Carolina 4.5%. New Hampshire (4 EVs) & Maine's 2nd District (1 EV) are both a 3% Hillary lean as well, but their small electoral vote count wouldn't be enough to swing things either way in that scenario. {edit: Trump could lose Colorado but still win if he won both New Hampshire & the 2nd District of Maine - all of those are a 3% Hillary lean per those polls)
I think the polls coming out Monday will start to have some people included who had heard or could have heard of the latest news about Hillary, Weiner & the FBI.
Edited by JeffB at 17:04:13 on 10/30/16
With the usual caveats it would look like Trump would need to win Iowa & Ohio where they're tied, as well as the next 3 with a Hillary lean: Nevada 2%, Colorado 3%, North Carolina 4.5%. New Hampshire (4 EVs) & Maine's 2nd District (1 EV) are both a 3% Hillary lean as well, but their small electoral vote count wouldn't be enough to swing things either way in that scenario. {edit: Trump could lose Colorado but still win if he won both New Hampshire & the 2nd District of Maine - all of those are a 3% Hillary lean per those polls)
I think the polls coming out Monday will start to have some people included who had heard or could have heard of the latest news about Hillary, Weiner & the FBI.
# % % % % lean EV EV
State EV Hillary Trump 0ther Hillary date Trump Hillary poll
DC * 3 90 10 0 80 09/06/16 538 3 n/a
Maryland 10 63 27 4 36 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 57 25 11 32 10/27/16 525 24 Suffolk University
Vermont 3 50 22 16 28 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 10 26 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
California 55 54 28 8 26 10/27/16 507 86 PPIC
New York 29 54 30 7 24 10/19/16 452 115 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 10 21 10/03/16 423 118 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 6 20 10/06/16 420 122 Emerson College
Washington 12 48 31 19 17 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 2 15 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
Illinois 20 51 36 5 15 10/24/16 397 161 Victory Research
Maine 3 48 37 7 11 10/30/16 377 164 UNH Survey Center
New Jersey 14 51 40 9 11 10/18/16 374 178 Fairleigh Dickenson
Oregon 7 46 36 8 10 10/18/16 360 185 KGW/Oregonian
New Mexico 5 41 33 3 8 10/18/16 353 190 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 7 8 10/24/16 348 200 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Pennsylvania 20 48 40 5 8 10/30/16 338 220 YouGov/CBS
Virginia 13 46 39 9 7 10/28/16 318 233 Christopher Newport Univ
Michigan 16 50 43 1 7 10/28/16 305 249 Emerson College
Wisconsin 10 48 42 0 6 10/24/16 289 259 Emerson College
North Carolina 15 47.5 43 4 4.5 10/30/16 279 274 NBC/WSJ/Marist/YouGov/CBS
Maine 2nd Dist 1 43 40 17 3 10/30/16 264 275 UNH Survey Center
New Hampshire 4 46 43 3 3 10/28/16 263 279 Emerson College
Colorado 9 42 39 10 3 10/30/16 259 288 YouGov/CBS
Nevada 6 44 42 11 2 10/29/16 250 294 Emerson College
Iowa 6 44 44 7 0 10/27/16 244 300 Quinnipiac
Ohio 18 45 45 3 0 10/29/16 238 318 Remington Research tied
Alaska 3 36 37 17 -1 10/16/16 220 321 Lake Research
Georgia 16 43 44 5 -1 10/27/16 217 337 Quinnipiac
Florida 29 43.5 45 5 -1.5 10/30/16 201 366 NBC/WSJ/Marist/NYT/Siena
Arizona 11 42 44 9 -2 10/30/16 172 377 YouGov/CBS
Mississippi 6 43 46 5 -3 09/16/16 161 383 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Texas 38 42 45 4 -3 10/27/16 155 421 University of Texas
South Carolina 9 38 42 11 -4 09/29/16 117 430 Winthrop University
Missouri 10 42 47 7 -5 10/27/16 108 440 Mason-Dixon
Indiana 11 37 43 11 -6 10/20/16 98 451 WISH-TV/Ball St.
South Dakota 3 37 44 12 -7 10/25/16 87 454 Mason-Dixon
Utah 6 24 32 9 -8 10/30/16 84 460 Dan Jones & Assoc.
North Dakota 3 32 43 16 -11 09/20/16 78 463 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 8 -11 10/17/16 75 469 SurveyUSA
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 5.5 -11.5 10/24/16 69 475 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 13 -11.5 10/04/16 63 486 MTSU/Vanderbilt
Louisiana 8 35 49 7 -14 10/28/16 52 494 University of New Orleans
Montana 3 27 43 21 -16 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Idaho 4 29 48 7 -19 10/27/16 41 501 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 6 -22 09/06/16 37 510 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Kentucky 8 29 52 7 -23 09/06/16 28 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 5 -25 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 7 -27 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 5 -30 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 15 -35 09/21/16 3 538 DFM ResearchEdited by JeffB at 17:04:13 on 10/30/16
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
States Trump needs to flip to win per electoralvote.com - JeffB MU - 10/30 16:56:40