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States Trump would need to flip to win per 270towin.com
Posted on: October 28, 2016 at 22:19:03 CT
JeffB MU
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http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/
These are sorted by the states with the highest % Hillary lean (5th column) at the top.
This is obviously before the FBI reopened the investigation into Hillary's obstruction of justice & perjury charges, but per these numbers he would need to win all of the states at the bottom of the list, which are leaning his way, then work his way up the list to Pennsylvania which would get him a tie. Any states above the top gold line would get him a win... or one county in Maine would do the trick as well.
It should be a lot more doable, even if Hillary's latest legal troubles only move the needle a couple of points in Trump's direction.
Edited by JeffB at 23:00:45 on 10/28/16
These are sorted by the states with the highest % Hillary lean (5th column) at the top.
This is obviously before the FBI reopened the investigation into Hillary's obstruction of justice & perjury charges, but per these numbers he would need to win all of the states at the bottom of the list, which are leaning his way, then work his way up the list to Pennsylvania which would get him a tie. Any states above the top gold line would get him a win... or one county in Maine would do the trick as well.
It should be a lot more doable, even if Hillary's latest legal troubles only move the needle a couple of points in Trump's direction.
Electoral % % % Hillary total EV total EV
State Votes Hillary Trump Lean 0ther date Trump Hillary poll
DC * 3 90 10 80 0 09/06/16 538 3
Maryland 10 63 27 36 4 10/06/16 535 13 Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts 11 57 25 32 11 10/27/16 525 24 Suffolk University
Vermont 3 50 22 28 16 10/27/16 514 27 WCAX
Hawaii 4 51 25 26 10 09/06/16 511 31 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
California 55 54 28 26 8 10/27/16 507 86 PPIC
New York 29 54 30 24 7 10/19/16 452 115 Siena College
Delaware 3 51 30 21 10 10/03/16 423 118 Univ Delaware
Rhode Island 4 52 32 20 6 10/06/16 420 122 Emerson College
Washington 12 48 31 17 19 10/24/16 416 134 Elway Poll
Connecticut 7 50 35 15 2 09/07/16 404 141 Emerson College
Illinois 20 51 36 15 5 10/24/16 397 161 Victory Research
Florida 29 52 39 13 1 10/28/16 377 190 Saint Leo Univ
New Jersey 14 51 40 11 9 10/18/16 348 204 Fairleigh Dickenson
Oregon 7 46 36 10 8 10/18/16 334 211 KGW/Oregonian
New Mexico 5 41 33 8 3 10/18/16 327 216 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota 10 47 39 8 7 10/24/16 322 226 Minneapolis Star Tribune
Virginia 13 46 39 7 9 10/28/16 312 239 Christopher Newport Univ
Michigan 16 50 43 7 1 10/28/16 299 255 Emerson College
Maine 4 42 36 6 9 10/21/16 283 259 MPRC
Wisconsin 10 46 41 5 8 10/24/16 279 269 Remington Research
Pennsylvania 20 48 43 5 3 10/28/16 269 289 Emerson College
North Carolina 15 47 43 4 5 10/27/16 249 304 Quinnipiac
New Hampshire 4 46 43 3 3 10/28/16 234 308 Emerson College
Colorado 9 45 43 2 7 10/24/16 230 317 Remington Research
Nevada 6 43 43 0 4 10/26/16 221 323 NBC/WSJ/Marist
Iowa 6 44 44 0 7 10/27/16 215 329 Quinnipiac
Alaska 3 36 37 -1 17 10/16/16 209 332 Lake Research
Georgia 16 43 44 -1 5 10/27/16 206 348 Quinnipiac
Arizona 11 40 42 -2 11 10/28/16 190 359 Data Orbital
Mississippi 6 43 46 -3 5 09/16/16 179 365 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Texas 38 42 45 -3 4 10/27/16 173 403 University of Texas
Utah 6 28 32 -4 7 10/26/16 135 409 Rasmussen
South Carolina 9 38 42 -4 11 09/29/16 129 418 Winthrop University
Ohio 18 42 46 -4 8 10/24/16 120 436 Remington Research
Missouri 10 42 47 -5 7 10/27/16 102 446 Mason-Dixon
Indiana 11 37 43 -6 11 10/20/16 92 457 WISH-TV/Ball St.
South Dakota 3 37 44 -7 12 10/25/16 81 460 Mason-Dixon
North Dakota 3 32 43 -11 16 09/20/16 78 463 DFM Research
Kansas 6 36 47 -11 8 10/17/16 75 469 SurveyUSA
Arkansas 6 39.5 51 -11.5 5.5 10/24/16 69 475 avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee 11 34.5 46 -11.5 13 10/04/16 63 486 MTSU/Vanderbilt
Louisiana 8 35 49 -14 7 10/28/16 52 494 University of New Orleans
Montana 3 27 43 -16 21 10/25/16 44 497 Montana State U
Idaho 4 29 48 -19 7 10/27/16 41 501 Rasmussen
Alabama 9 31 53 -22 6 09/06/16 37 510 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Kentucky 8 29 52 -23 7 09/06/16 28 518 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia 5 27 52 -25 5 09/06/16 20 523 Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska 5 29 56 -27 7 09/28/16 15 528 Emerson College
Oklahoma 7 30 60 -30 5 10/23/16 10 535 Sooner Poll
Wyoming 3 19 54 -35 15 09/21/16 3 538 DFM Research
Edited by JeffB at 23:00:45 on 10/28/16
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States Trump would need to flip to win per 270towin.com - JeffB MU - 10/28 22:19:03