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Trump needs to flip 5 states per 270towin.com's polls...

Posted on: October 27, 2016 at 15:46:59 CT
JeffB MU
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http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

IF their polls are accurate and all the other caveats are in place, Trump would most likely need to win Nevada (tied) & flip Colorado 2% Hillary lean, Florida 4%, New Hampshire 4%, & either Virginia or Wisconsin, both currently listed with a 5% Hillary lean.

                         %       %   % Hillary                    total   total EV 
State  Electoral Votes Hillary Trump   Lean 	0ther	date	 Trump EV Hillary	poll
DC *	         3	90	10	80		09/06/16   538	      3	   (none taken - assumed Hillary)
Maryland	10	63	27	36	4	10/06/16   535	     13    Wash Post/U of Maryland
Vermont	         3	45	17	28	31	10/19/16   525	     16    Vermont Public Radio
Hawaii	         4	51	25	26	10	09/06/16   522	     20    Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Massachusetts	11	54	28	26	5	10/18/16   518	     31	   WBUR
California	55	56	30	26	8	10/17/16   507	     86    SurveyUSA
New York	29	54	30	24	7	10/19/16   452      115	   Siena College
Delaware	 3	51	30	21	10	10/03/16   423	    118	   Univ Delaware
Rhode Island	 4	52	32	20	6	10/06/16   420	    122	   Emerson College
Washington	12	48	31	17	19	10/24/16   416	    134	   Elway Poll
Connecticut	 7	50	35	15	2	09/07/16   404	    141	   Emerson College
Illinois	20	51	36	15	5	10/24/16   397	    161	   Victory Research
New Jersey	14	51	40	11	9	10/18/16   377	    175	   Fairleigh Dickenson
Oregon	         7	46	36	10	8	10/18/16   363	    182	   KGW/Oregonian
New Mexico	 5	41	33	8	3	10/18/16   356	    187	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota	10	47	39	8	7	10/24/16   351	    197	   Minneapolis Star Tribune
North Carolina	15	46	39	7	7	10/25/16   341	    212	   NYT Upshot/Siena College
Michigan	16	41	34	7	13	10/27/16   326	    228	   EPIC-MRA
Pennsylvania	20	46	39	7	6	09/06/16   310	    248	   NYT Upshot/Siena College
Maine	         4	42	36	6	9	10/21/16   290	    252	   MPRC
Wisconsin	10	46	41	5	6	10/24/16   286	    262	   Remington Research
Virginia	13	48	43	5	6	10/24/16   276	    275	   Remington Research
New Hampshire	 4	41	37	4	13	10/27/16   263      279    Umass Amherst/WBZ
Florida	        29	43	39	4	9	10/27/16   259      308	   Univ of N. Florida
Colorado	 9	45	43	2	7	10/24/16   230	    317	   Remington Research
Nevada	         6	43	43	0	4	10/26/16   221	    323	   NBC/WSJ/Marist (tied per latest poll)
Alaska	         3	36	37	-1	17	10/16/16   215	    326	   Lake Research
Arizona	        11	45	46	-1	4	10/25/16   212	    337	   Monmouth University
Mississippi	 6	43	46	-3	5	09/16/16   201	    343	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Texas	        38	42	45	-3	4	10/27/16   195	    381	   University of Texas
Georgia	        16	43.67	47	-3.33	9.33	10/21/16   157	    397	   avg of 3
Utah	         6	28	32	-4	7	10/26/16   141      403	   Rasmussen
South Carolina	 9	38	42	-4	11	09/29/16   135	    412	   Winthrop University
Ohio	        18	42	46	-4	7	10/24/16   126	    430	   Remington Research
Iowa	         6	40	45	-5	3	10/18/16   108	    436	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Indiana	        11	37	43	-6	11	10/20/16   102	    447	   WISH-TV/Ball St.
South Dakota	 3	37	44	-7	12	10/25/16    91	    450	   Mason-Dixon
Missouri	10	39	47	-8	7	10/19/16    88	    460    Emerson College
North Dakota	 3	32	43	-11	16	09/20/16    78	    463	   DFM Research
Kansas	         6	36	47	-11	8	10/17/16    75	    469	   SurveyUSA
Arkansas	 6	39.5	51	-11.5	5.5	10/24/16    69	    475	   avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee	11	34.5	46	-11.5	13	10/04/16    63	    486	   MTSU/Vanderbilt
Montana	         3	27	43	-16	21	10/25/16    52	    489	   Montana State U
Louisiana	 8	34	54	-20	9	10/22/16    49	    497	   Mason-Dixon
Alabama	         9	31	53	-22	6	09/06/16    41	    506	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Kentucky	 8	29	52	-23	7	09/06/16    32	    514	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia	 5	27	52	-25	5	09/06/16    24	    519	   Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska	 5	29	56	-27	7	09/28/16    19	    524	   Emerson College
Idaho	         4	23	52	-29	11	10/25/16    14	    528	   Emerson College
Oklahoma	 7	30	60	-30	5	10/23/16    10	    535	   Sooner Poll
Wyoming	         3	19	54	-35	15	09/21/16     3	    538	   DFM Research




Edited by JeffB at 16:12:56 on 10/27/16
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Trump needs to flip 5 states per 270towin.com's polls... - JeffB MU - 10/27 15:46:59
     Both VA and CO are going with Clinton - raskolnikov MU - 10/27 18:47:08
     Ok - Mr. Orange SU - 10/27 16:13:41
     He'll lose AZ - Webbster MU - 10/27 15:53:27
          I think you're going to be real disappointed - Evenflow MU - 10/27 16:02:47
               You should have stopped at "I think"..nm - Webbster MU - 10/27 16:06:09
               Its going to be yuuge, believe me!(nm) - tigerman81 MU - 10/27 16:04:34
          The same AZ with the 100% obamacare rate increases ? LOL - Uncle Fester USMC - 10/27 16:02:39
               You may be overestimating the impact of that - TigerJackSwartz MU - 10/27 16:10:04
                    'a small percentage of {Obamacare folks} don't get subsidies - JeffB MU - 10/27 16:15:13
                         yes, it is a bad system - TigerJackSwartz MU - 10/27 16:27:04
                              RE: yes, it is a bad system - sarasotatiger MU - 10/27 19:32:53
                              A bankrupt single payer is an even worse system. (nm) - JeffB MU - 10/27 18:02:10
     RE: Trump needs to flip 5 states per 270towin.com's polls... - "Wild Bill" Donovan MU - 10/27 15:50:11




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