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Trump will under perform. Here's why
Posted on: October 24, 2016 at 09:11:22 CT
Webbster MU
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It's like he's totally stopped trying to expand his base, and he has no ground game.
And the GOP has a damned if they do support him, damned if they don't. That will spell big problems down ticket.
Trump is a pig, and so are his deplorables. Sexism from Trump, and his supporter, and the campaign remaining silent have helped women to at best, not vote for him, and worst vote against him.
Very common to see Trump rallies with signs, t-shirts and chants;
"Trump that B!tch"
"Better to grab a pu$$y than be a pu$$y"
Trump even calls Condilezza Rice a b!tch, and
Trump's 'nasty woman' remark adds to it.
Only half of the Trump supporters are "the deplorables", so about 25% of voters. So that base is relatively small, especially if he underperforms among college-educated Republicans.
The GOP for state races, for some of their voters they have to support Trump, for others, they need to disavow him.
Trump is getting only about 80 percent of the Republican vote, whereas candidates typically finish at about 90 percent of their party’s vote or above. AND Republicans missing from Trump’s column tend to be high-education, high-income voters, who typically also have a high propensity to vote.
Trump has subcontracted out his ground game the GOP and has (always had) a tremendous ground game deficit, with Clinton and Democrats holding a nearly 4-1 advantage in paid staffers. It's these people that will drive voters to the polls. Dems have that, Trump doesn't.
Clinton does have energized supporters; Latinos that see Trump as a threat. And women. His Alpha male bravato, and now 11 women coming out to say he assaulted them. I seriously believe there are many wives of "the deplorables" will silently not vote for Trump
Trump’s rhetoric that the election is rigged could discourage turnout among his own voters.
And the even bigger problem of voters increasingly convinced that Clinton will win the election, and turnout can be lower in lopsided elections.
Edited by Webbster at 11:42:16 on 10/24/16
And the GOP has a damned if they do support him, damned if they don't. That will spell big problems down ticket.
Trump is a pig, and so are his deplorables. Sexism from Trump, and his supporter, and the campaign remaining silent have helped women to at best, not vote for him, and worst vote against him.
Very common to see Trump rallies with signs, t-shirts and chants;
"Trump that B!tch"
"Better to grab a pu$$y than be a pu$$y"
Trump even calls Condilezza Rice a b!tch, and
Trump's 'nasty woman' remark adds to it.
Only half of the Trump supporters are "the deplorables", so about 25% of voters. So that base is relatively small, especially if he underperforms among college-educated Republicans.
The GOP for state races, for some of their voters they have to support Trump, for others, they need to disavow him.
Trump is getting only about 80 percent of the Republican vote, whereas candidates typically finish at about 90 percent of their party’s vote or above. AND Republicans missing from Trump’s column tend to be high-education, high-income voters, who typically also have a high propensity to vote.
Trump has subcontracted out his ground game the GOP and has (always had) a tremendous ground game deficit, with Clinton and Democrats holding a nearly 4-1 advantage in paid staffers. It's these people that will drive voters to the polls. Dems have that, Trump doesn't.
Clinton does have energized supporters; Latinos that see Trump as a threat. And women. His Alpha male bravato, and now 11 women coming out to say he assaulted them. I seriously believe there are many wives of "the deplorables" will silently not vote for Trump
Trump’s rhetoric that the election is rigged could discourage turnout among his own voters.
And the even bigger problem of voters increasingly convinced that Clinton will win the election, and turnout can be lower in lopsided elections.
Edited by Webbster at 11:42:16 on 10/24/16
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MESSAGE THREAD
Trump will under perform. Here's why - Webbster MU - 10/24 09:11:22
- #sckhag is mainly resting on her laurels, trump is out there - SEC_BIG_GAMEHUNTER MU - 10/24 09:13:11