 |
|
MizzouRah's Picks Week V
Posted on: September 27, 2016 at 17:19:28 CT
MizzouRah MU
Posts:
8380
Member For:
25.23 yrs
Level:
Moderator
M.O.B. Votes:
0
A rough week for the picks and we just are not getting any momentum this year. We were 2-4 vs. the Vegas Spread and are now a sad 12-13 on the year. We didn't even do well picking straight up and we are 25-7 in that regard on the year.
The worst thing about last weekend was I saw the MU spread was 45 so I called a buddy in Las Vegas and just told him he would be wise to put some actual money on the Tigers. Well the spread jumped to 53 but I told him not to worry, we are better than most think and the big thing is DSU is absolutely horrible. So he makes a pretty big bet, MU takes mercy on DSU and shortens the game by ten minutes and even though we won 79-0 the Stations Sportsbook threw out the bet.
This is why I say it's wise just to do this for fun. The casinos pretty much always win... Even when you have great info (and believe me by the time I finished doing research I KNEW exactly what would happen in that game) the Vegas books are going to rip you off if they can find a loophole. The spread went from 43 to 54, that means nearly ALL the money was on MU so the book covered itself. UGH!!!!!!!!
Again, I just feel badly for my friend.
So my picks aren't going that well so please just treat these as just for fun and let's see how we can do on picks!
MIZZOU (+13.5) at LSU - We were some of the few fans to attend the Independence Bowl in late 2011 after it was known MU would be joining the SEC next year. The SEC has a lot of proud fans which is great but these LSU people take the cake. Nearly every person we ran into felt obligated to tell us how MU would never compete in the SEC (and NEVER get to Atlanta by winning the East, oh wait.....) and generally let us know we might be wise to shut down our football program.
Obviously, I'd really like to shut some of these people up. Here's the thing, after MU wins Saturday night (and we might not, while I think MU actually has the more complete team, this is a VERY difficult environment to win in) they will all blame the firing of Les Miles. The fact is, MU had a more complete team two weeks ago and they have a more complete team today. LSU has a fantastic running game but MU should be up to that challenge.
I promise you this, if MU wins this game it won't be because of any fluke, just like when MU won the East two years running it wasn't because the division was pathetic (obviously the West has been a fair amount better but when a team like Florida wins the East no one brings this up). I'm hesitant to pick the outright upset after Georgia appeared to be completely outclassed by Ole Miss but MU is coming around in a big way and are more than good enough to compete here.
MIZZOU wins outright 20-16
SUNY Buffalo at BC (-17.5) - I had that Buffalo cover over Army figured out but I didn't get into it on this post last week. Now Buffalo (who is not a good team) is getting more credit than they deserve based off that win over a very distracted Army team.
BOSTON COLLEGE is the pick 41-13
Memphis (+14.5) at Ole Miss - I got destroyed by Ole Miss last week but I'm going to continue to fight the tide. This Memphis team can score and I think because of that this line is a bit high.
MEMPHIS is the pick but they lose 41-35
K-State (+3.5) at West Virginia - Since WVU beat Mizzou I have been watching a bit of their games. I feel like MU would be far more competitive in a game there now but they certainly deserved to win on the day we played. Still, K-State has found some real athletes on offense and you know Coach Snyder has been holding a few things back. I'm all about the upsets this week and I LOVED this spread when it opened at 5.5.
K-STATE wins outright 38-28
Illinois (+21) at Nebraska - There appear to be a few off the field distractions at Nebraska. (I'm not getting into it much but it's all over social media if you want the details). The thing is (and again it sounds crass to try to figure out how this affects a football game) I don't expect this to be that much of a distraction to the actual team. The young man was willing to talk about the situation which is not an easy thing to do.
As far as football goes, the Iliini don't appear to be able to stop anyone and Nebraska keeps finding their way on offense. That's good enough for me.
NEBRASKA is the pick 52-14
Kentucky (+34.5) at Alabama - I know everyone thinks I will pick Kentucky every week. No, I realize they are not good at all but they had some favorable match ups. Not anymore. Again, I liked this spread a lot when it opened at 31... no matter.
ALABAMA ROLLS 55-3
Troy (-13.5) - UNLV was pretty awful in losing to Idaho last week. I am sorry for anyone who took my advice on that one. Still, I think that was a one week blip on the radar. Idaho should not be able to stop any halfway decent offense and I like how Troy has competed on the road.
TROY WINS AND COVERS 48-21
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non LSU Tiger) Team!
The worst thing about last weekend was I saw the MU spread was 45 so I called a buddy in Las Vegas and just told him he would be wise to put some actual money on the Tigers. Well the spread jumped to 53 but I told him not to worry, we are better than most think and the big thing is DSU is absolutely horrible. So he makes a pretty big bet, MU takes mercy on DSU and shortens the game by ten minutes and even though we won 79-0 the Stations Sportsbook threw out the bet.
This is why I say it's wise just to do this for fun. The casinos pretty much always win... Even when you have great info (and believe me by the time I finished doing research I KNEW exactly what would happen in that game) the Vegas books are going to rip you off if they can find a loophole. The spread went from 43 to 54, that means nearly ALL the money was on MU so the book covered itself. UGH!!!!!!!!
Again, I just feel badly for my friend.
So my picks aren't going that well so please just treat these as just for fun and let's see how we can do on picks!
MIZZOU (+13.5) at LSU - We were some of the few fans to attend the Independence Bowl in late 2011 after it was known MU would be joining the SEC next year. The SEC has a lot of proud fans which is great but these LSU people take the cake. Nearly every person we ran into felt obligated to tell us how MU would never compete in the SEC (and NEVER get to Atlanta by winning the East, oh wait.....) and generally let us know we might be wise to shut down our football program.
Obviously, I'd really like to shut some of these people up. Here's the thing, after MU wins Saturday night (and we might not, while I think MU actually has the more complete team, this is a VERY difficult environment to win in) they will all blame the firing of Les Miles. The fact is, MU had a more complete team two weeks ago and they have a more complete team today. LSU has a fantastic running game but MU should be up to that challenge.
I promise you this, if MU wins this game it won't be because of any fluke, just like when MU won the East two years running it wasn't because the division was pathetic (obviously the West has been a fair amount better but when a team like Florida wins the East no one brings this up). I'm hesitant to pick the outright upset after Georgia appeared to be completely outclassed by Ole Miss but MU is coming around in a big way and are more than good enough to compete here.
MIZZOU wins outright 20-16
SUNY Buffalo at BC (-17.5) - I had that Buffalo cover over Army figured out but I didn't get into it on this post last week. Now Buffalo (who is not a good team) is getting more credit than they deserve based off that win over a very distracted Army team.
BOSTON COLLEGE is the pick 41-13
Memphis (+14.5) at Ole Miss - I got destroyed by Ole Miss last week but I'm going to continue to fight the tide. This Memphis team can score and I think because of that this line is a bit high.
MEMPHIS is the pick but they lose 41-35
K-State (+3.5) at West Virginia - Since WVU beat Mizzou I have been watching a bit of their games. I feel like MU would be far more competitive in a game there now but they certainly deserved to win on the day we played. Still, K-State has found some real athletes on offense and you know Coach Snyder has been holding a few things back. I'm all about the upsets this week and I LOVED this spread when it opened at 5.5.
K-STATE wins outright 38-28
Illinois (+21) at Nebraska - There appear to be a few off the field distractions at Nebraska. (I'm not getting into it much but it's all over social media if you want the details). The thing is (and again it sounds crass to try to figure out how this affects a football game) I don't expect this to be that much of a distraction to the actual team. The young man was willing to talk about the situation which is not an easy thing to do.
As far as football goes, the Iliini don't appear to be able to stop anyone and Nebraska keeps finding their way on offense. That's good enough for me.
NEBRASKA is the pick 52-14
Kentucky (+34.5) at Alabama - I know everyone thinks I will pick Kentucky every week. No, I realize they are not good at all but they had some favorable match ups. Not anymore. Again, I liked this spread a lot when it opened at 31... no matter.
ALABAMA ROLLS 55-3
Troy (-13.5) - UNLV was pretty awful in losing to Idaho last week. I am sorry for anyone who took my advice on that one. Still, I think that was a one week blip on the radar. Idaho should not be able to stop any halfway decent offense and I like how Troy has competed on the road.
TROY WINS AND COVERS 48-21
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non LSU Tiger) Team!
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
MizzouRah's Picks Week V - MizzouRah MU - 9/27 17:19:28