 |
|
re: my issues with: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
Posted on: September 15, 2016 at 10:56:59 CT
JeffB MU
Posts:
72144
Member For:
21.41 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2016/09/the_basic_laws_of_human_stupidity.html
Is this really "science based"? He starts off with two examples of similar sets of laws, starting with an accurate and evidence-based description of Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. and follows that up with Newton's laws laying the foundations for classical mechanics.
But he gives no evidence whatsoever, at least that I noticed, that "Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California - Berkeley" who "introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity." based his upon science.
They are kind of funny and cute in a way and would explain some of our own life experiences, and yet where is the scientific backing for them? Worse yet, he seems to contradict himself.
For instance, his Fourth Law:
"Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake."
When we have a good idea of who stupid individuals are, we still hang out with them, even if it's to our detriment, Cipolla laments.
So he is in essence saying "Don't hang out with stupid people." and that would of course be common sense... but it is in opposition to his first two laws:
His first law sets the stage.
"Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation."
and
Contributing to the first law is Cipolla's second law.
"The probability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person."
Anybody, whether intellectual or ignorant, blue-collar or white collar, book smart or street smart, can be stupid. Moreover, idiocy persists at roughly equal proportions at all levels of society. The rate of stupidity amongst Nobel laureates is just as high as it is amongst male swimmers on the U.S. Olympic team.
"[The Second Basic Law’s] implications are frightening," Cipolla wrote. "The Law implies that whether you move in distinguished circles or you take refuge among the head-hunters of Polynesia, whether you lock yourself into a monastery or decide to spend the rest of your life in the company of beautiful and lascivious women, you always have to face the same percentage of stupid people -- which (in accordance with the First Law) will always surpass your expectations."
He is in effect saying that we drastically underestimate how many people are stupid... so people we don't think are stupid in fact ARE stupid... or will do stupid things, AND that stupidity is not really apparent, that there are stupid people throughout all walks of life. Based upon my own life experiences and observation I would also add that virtually everyone does stupid things at various points throughout their lives.
I do agree that there are some people who do stupid things more frequently than others and that it is in general best to avoid hanging around with them if possible, but then again that is not always possible. Relatives, co-workers, clients, other drivers & pedestrians, neighbors and assorted other people that we necessarily come into contact with on a daily basis are unavoidable, and some of them will undoubtedly do stupid things.
I would also take issue a bit with his contention that there is an even distribution of stupid people throughout all occupations and walks of life. From my own observations, and I realize anecdotal evidence isn't on a par with scientific studies, stupid people seem to gravitate towards politics and refereeing. Of course, even if that's true, it could be that those occupations tend to make people stupid. There's a chicken and egg, cause and effect issue going on there.
Is this really "science based"? He starts off with two examples of similar sets of laws, starting with an accurate and evidence-based description of Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. and follows that up with Newton's laws laying the foundations for classical mechanics.
But he gives no evidence whatsoever, at least that I noticed, that "Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California - Berkeley" who "introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity." based his upon science.
They are kind of funny and cute in a way and would explain some of our own life experiences, and yet where is the scientific backing for them? Worse yet, he seems to contradict himself.
For instance, his Fourth Law:
"Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake."
When we have a good idea of who stupid individuals are, we still hang out with them, even if it's to our detriment, Cipolla laments.
So he is in essence saying "Don't hang out with stupid people." and that would of course be common sense... but it is in opposition to his first two laws:
His first law sets the stage.
"Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation."
and
Contributing to the first law is Cipolla's second law.
"The probability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person."
Anybody, whether intellectual or ignorant, blue-collar or white collar, book smart or street smart, can be stupid. Moreover, idiocy persists at roughly equal proportions at all levels of society. The rate of stupidity amongst Nobel laureates is just as high as it is amongst male swimmers on the U.S. Olympic team.
"[The Second Basic Law’s] implications are frightening," Cipolla wrote. "The Law implies that whether you move in distinguished circles or you take refuge among the head-hunters of Polynesia, whether you lock yourself into a monastery or decide to spend the rest of your life in the company of beautiful and lascivious women, you always have to face the same percentage of stupid people -- which (in accordance with the First Law) will always surpass your expectations."
He is in effect saying that we drastically underestimate how many people are stupid... so people we don't think are stupid in fact ARE stupid... or will do stupid things, AND that stupidity is not really apparent, that there are stupid people throughout all walks of life. Based upon my own life experiences and observation I would also add that virtually everyone does stupid things at various points throughout their lives.
I do agree that there are some people who do stupid things more frequently than others and that it is in general best to avoid hanging around with them if possible, but then again that is not always possible. Relatives, co-workers, clients, other drivers & pedestrians, neighbors and assorted other people that we necessarily come into contact with on a daily basis are unavoidable, and some of them will undoubtedly do stupid things.
I would also take issue a bit with his contention that there is an even distribution of stupid people throughout all occupations and walks of life. From my own observations, and I realize anecdotal evidence isn't on a par with scientific studies, stupid people seem to gravitate towards politics and refereeing. Of course, even if that's true, it could be that those occupations tend to make people stupid. There's a chicken and egg, cause and effect issue going on there.
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
re: my issues with: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity - JeffB MU - 9/15 10:56:59