http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
(additional links and commentary on original page)
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal from the 20-yard line. ...