WEEK 1 SEC PICKS and other games (long)*

Posted on: September 1, 2016 at 14:24:37 CT

Finally college football is upon us! Time for another year of picks. For those who haven’t followed this before I will pick all the SEC games each week. I will not “play” all of those games and I will also have other games I like and will be playing for the week. I will give “units” to each play and at the end of the year I hope to be in the black. Usually most plays range from 1-5 units but I have thrown a 10 unit play out there…which is approaching that “L” word you are never supposed to say! Two years ago was a great year…last year was a grind so you never know. Well enough about all that…on to this week’s plays. Usually won’t play this many games…but hey it’s WEEK 1!!!!!

SEC PLAYS

APPALACHAIN STATE +21 @ TENNESSEE (1 UNIT) – well here comes the hype with UT and I get it I do but I’m not sold. Dobbs is a great athlete…I’m just not sure he is a great QB. Tennessee will get tested here but eventually wear down App St. This will be closer than Vols fans will like. TENNESSEE 34 APPALACHAIN STATE 20

VANDERBILT -4 vs SOUTH CAROLINA (2 UNITS on UNDER 41) – I really want to take Vandy in this game but I think this game will be low scoring so I’ll just go that route instead. Vandy’s D is legit and I think both teams will struggle on offense. VANDERBILT 20 SOUTH CAROLINA 13

MISSISSIPPI STATE -28 vs SOUTH ALABAMA (NO PLAY) – staying away from this one as the Bulldogs start life without Dak. Both teams lost a lot last year so imagine this will be a pretty ugly sloppy game. I would take the points if I had to choose. MISSISSPPI STATE 38 SOUTH ALABAMA 13

LSU -10 vs WISCONSIN (in Green Bay) (NO PLAY)– I think LSU wins this one as the Badgers should be a little bit of a work in progress but I think the line is about right. Wisky will struggle to score but I think LSU will as well. Under could be in play but I’m staying away. LSU 23 WISCONSIN 10

TEXAS A&M -3 vs UCLA (NO PLAY) – this one has me intrigued…but I have no idea who wins this game. I’ve been back and forth so many times so I’ll just sit back and enjoy. In the end I think A&M is favored for a reason and I think their D will be the difference. TEXAS A&M 34 UCLA 28

ARKANSAS -26 vs LOUISIANA TECH (NO PLAY) – This line seems about right. I don’t expect Arky to run away with this game but should be a nice easy comfortable victory. Late score either way will decide who covers but Hogs simply too much. ARKANSAS 42 LOUISIANA TECH 17

GEORGIA -3 vs NORTH CAROLINA (in Atlanta) (NO PLAY) – my calcs say that this game has the wrong team favored but I can’t bring myself to bet on UNC, they have burned me too many times. I don’t trust UGA out of the gates either with too many question marks. I think UGA finds a way to win a close one but don’t be surprise to see the Tar Heels win. GEROGIA 27 NORTH CAROLINA 24

FLORIDA -36.5 vs MASSACHUSETTS (NO PLAY) – shouldn’t know much about Florida after this game. Gators roll. FLORIDA 52 MASSACHUSETTES 10

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +6 @ KENTUCKY (1 UNIT) – UK has to win this game and I’m not sure they will. Mullens should be able to move the ball on the Wildcats and put up some points. If UK commits to running the ball then they could wear the Eagles down, but I think they panic and it costs them the game. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 34 KENTUCKY 28


ALABAMA -12 vs USC (in Arlington) (NO PLAY) – This game will be won or lost by the Alabama D. I think their D will dominate USC and they will control the game on the ground on offense. Tide usually win these kinds of games. ALABAMA 31 USC 13

CLEMSON -7 @ AUBURN (NO PLAY) – This line seems fishy to me…actually went down to 6 while now back up at 7. To me this seems like a pretty easy Clemson win but the line movement isn’t making much sense. For that reason I’m staying away. CLEMSON 30 AUBURN 21

MISSISSIPPI +4.5 @ FLORIDA STATE ( NO PLAY) – Another line that seems a little fishy. This line screams play Florida State and despite the public being on the Noles the line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5. That makes be actually want to play the Rebels but I just can’t do it. FLORIDA STATE 31 MISSISSIPPI 23

MISSOURI +10 @ WEST VIRGINIA (2 UNITS; 1 UNIT ON ML +390) – this may be a homer play but I don’t care. I really think this team is going to surprise a few people this year. I also think that many people are underestimating just how good the Tiger D was last year and how good it will be again this year. I’m cautiously optimistic about the offense improving. I like our RB’s and QB. WR/OL remain question marks so I guess we will find out this week where we stand. Taking the points for 2 as I think they will keep it within the number and also taking a small shot on the ML but winning on the road against a experienced QB will not be easy. MIZZOU 23 WEST VIRGINIA 21 (WV misses game winning FG at the end)

THURSDAY

CHARLOTTE +39 @ Louisville (2 UNITS)– Charlotte was in their first year of FBS last year and now get Kevin Olsen at QB who transferred from Miami. Louisville is going to really solid but I think this is just too many points. LOUISVILLE 45 CHARLOTTE 20

TULANE +16.5 @ Wake Forest (1 UNIT) – Tulane is moving to the triple option. Wake hasn’t played GT in a while but they have played Army the past few years so they will have seen it before but that doesn’t mean it is easy to prepare for. Tulane’s coach has pretty much been successful wherever he has gone. With Wake’s struggles on offense, again I think this is just too many points. WAKE FOREST 23 TULANE 14

FRIDAY

GEORGIA STATE -4.5 vs BALL STATE (3 UNITS) – both teams return quite a few starters but GSU finished the season strong last year to get to a bowl game. They lose their QB from last year but I think they should win this one pretty easily at home. GEORGIA STATE 42 BALL STATE 24

SATURDAY

BOSTON COLLEGE +3 vs Georgia Tech (in Dublin) (2 UNITS) – Patrick Towles takes over at QB to try to fix BC’s offensive struggles from last year. Their D is going to be very strong again. I think they find a way to win this one. BOSTON COLLEGE 23 GEORGIA TECH 20

HOUSTON +11.5 vs Oklahoma (2 UNITS) – I’m not as sold on OU as some other people this year. In fact I think TCU ends up winning the Big 12 this year. OU will eventually wear down the Cougars but this one won’t be easy at all. OKLAHOMA 35 HOUSTON 28

NORTH TEXAS +10 vs SMU (1 UNIT) – this should be a shootout and I look for the home team to hang around. Don’t be surprised to see the Mean Green pull off the upset. SMU 42 NORTH TEXAS 38

SAN JOSE STATE +5.5 @ TULSA (1 UNIT) – I’m trusting the numbers here as I show that SJST should be favored here. SAN JOSE STATE 28 TULSA 24

TEXAS +3.5 vs NOTRE DAME (2 UNIST) – just really a guy feeling here that UT finally gets it done at home in a big game. TEXAS 27 NOTRE DAME 23

OTHER GAMES I’M KEEPING AN EYE ON
TOLEDO +4 @ Arkansas State – think wrong team is favored
MINNESOTA -13 vs Oregon State – line seems a little fishy
FRESNO STATE +28 @ Nebraska – as long as Armstrong is QB I can’t trust the Huskers
BYU -1 vs Arizona – Hill is back…enough said