SEC PICKS WEEK 12 and other games...

Posted on: November 13, 2019 at 12:49:53 CT

Well I said last week my picks that week were going to go a long way in determining if we would be profitable this year or not. I liked a lot last week and well it went pretty good last week. I went 9-3 SU and 8-2 ATS for +16.7 U which puts us back in the black for the year and back to .500!! Finally grinded our way back after a rough start to the year. Here is how we sit of the year and this week’s picks

SEC GAMES: 67-21 SU; 15-15-1 ATS +3.5U
OTHER GAMES: 55-18 SU; 38-38-3 ATS +2.7U
TOTAL: 122-39 SU ; 53-53-4 ATS +6.2U

1 UNIT PLAYS: 15-19-1 -5.9U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 23-25-3 -9U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 11-8 +6.6U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 4-1 +14.5U

SEC GAMES

TEXAS A&M -11 vs SOUTH CAROLINA (NO PLAY) – Texas A&M is a quiet 6-3 as those 3 loses are to Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn. Would love to lay the points with A&M and I probably would if I have to pick a side but the line seems about right. Aggies find a way to grind out a home win over the pesky Gamecocks. TEXAS A&M 38 SOUTH CAROLINA 21

GEORGIA -3 vs AUBURN (NO PLAY) – Auburn racked up yards against Ole Miss but not points and that continues to be a problem for the offense. UGA did what it needed to do against Mizzou but the offense wasn’t exactly lighting it up. This comes down to redzone execution and who does it better. I think I will go with the home team here in a mild upset. AUBURN 23 GEORGIA 20

KENTUCKY -10.5 @ VANDERBILT (1 UNIT UNDER 44)– I expect this to be a grind it out type of game. I don’t think either offense is capable of doing anything too explosive. In the end I just think the Wildcats D and ground game will eventually take over. It won’t be pretty on either side but the Wildcats get out with a win. KENTUCKY 23 VANDERBILT 13

ALABAMA -20.5 @ MISSISSIPPI STATE (NO PLAY) – this will be all about the Tide on how they respond to the LSU loss. On paper this should be a blowout for the Tide and it will be if they want it to be. The Bulldog ground game could case some problems if the Tide comes out flat. The Tide haven’t had the opportunity to respond to inseason losses much so not sure how they will here. I’m leaning to taking the points but not confident. ALABAMA 38 MISSISSIPPI STATE 20

LSU -21 vs MISSISSIPPI (NO PLAY) – Ole Miss has the worst pass D in the SEC and now gets to face off with #1 LSU and Joe Burrow….good luck! Can the Tigers keep their focus after finally beating Alabama, that is the question this week. I think Ole Miss’s running game could keep them in the game and not let this get too out of hand but even if the Tigers come out slow it’s hard to imagine Ole Miss keeping them down for 4 quarters. LSU 42 MISSISSIPPI 21

MIZZOU +7 vs FLORIDA (2 UNITS) – I said it earlier this week that this line seems a bit off. Even though the Tigers likely get Bryant back I’m not sure how the Tigers manage much offense against this defense. This team has been a completely different team at home but how will they respond after the last 3 weeks. If this team has any heart/leadership they will show up this week ready to go as they still have an 8 win season as a possibility. However from what I have witnessed the past 3 weeks I’m not sure I can predict that. Florida will also still be in the East race at the time of kickoff so hard to imagine much of a letdown from them. I guess an early kick and a little colder weather might help but likely that won’t be enough. I took UGA last week to cover and until I see something different I will expect Florida to do the same …however I don’t feel great about it as the line is even down to 6.5 in some places. FLORIDA 24 MIZZOU 10


OTHER GAMES

TEXAS +7 @ IOWA STATE (3 UNITS) – other than West Virginia Iowa State hasn’t exactly blown anyone out this year. It is going to be cold and windy so I think that will end up keeping the pass games in check which I would think is an advantage for Iowa State. I think this game will be decided on the ground and I think that gives Texas the advantage. TEXAS 31 IOWA STATE 23

MEMPHIS -10 @ HOUSTON (1 UNIT OVER 69)– Defense optional in this games an neither D is all that great. Houston will try to win this on the ground but they will likely be forced to throw as they will likely be behind in this game. That is trouble for the Cougars. MEMPHIS 52 HOUSTON 35

NAVY +9 @ NOTRE DAME (5 UNITS)– Irish better be careful here. Michigan already torched the Irish on the ground in their win over the Irish and while the Irish secondary is solid it won’t matter in this game. The triple option will give the Irish fits. You heard it here first. Navy will upset the Irish this weekend….but at the very least they will cover. NAVY 28 NOTRE DAME 20

MASSACHUSETTS +40.5 @ NORTHWESTERN (1 UNIT)– I get it UMass is one of the worst team in college football this year, but 40 points to a Northwestern team with no offense. My only concern here is a 45-0 type game but I think that UMASS will put up a few points. NORTHWESTERN 48 MASSACHUSETS 17

IOWA-3 vs MINNESOTA (2 UNITS)– I was on the Gophers last week against Penn State but I think their undefeated season comes to an end this week. It is going to be hard for the Gophers to bring that intensity 2 weeks in a row. Iowa always seems to win a game like this at home every year as well. IOWA 23 MINNESOTA 17

CALIFORNIA +6.5 vs USC (2 UNITS)- I didn’t realize Cal’s QB was back last week against Wazzu and Cal cruised to an easy victory. Wrong team is favored here as the Cal secondary will slow down the USC passing game like it did to Wazzu and the offense will be there again this week. CALIFORNIA 27 USC 24

OHIO STATE -52.5 vs RUTGERS (1 UNIT) – yes I am taking the Buckeyes to cover a 52 point spread. I think OSU gets in the 60’s so it’s do I think Rutgers gets to double digits…and I don’t. OHIO STATE 65 RUTGERS 3