Welcome Guest

SEC PICKS WEEK 4 and other games...

Posted on: September 18, 2019 at 08:45:14 CT
qbbearcat MU
Posts:
12338
Member For:
20.45 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
Well…my picks continue to suck. Sorry to all those who follow these. Not the start to the season I wanted and fell for a few sucker lines last week. Also have been getting pretty unlucky with a few late meaningless scores but that is how it goes sometimes. My SEC picks continue to be horrible…10-1 SU and 0-3 ATS -4.4U last week…late SC TD cost us. Other picks were 5-3 SU and 3-4-2 ATS -4.1U. So here is how I stand so far this year…and it’s pretty ugly. Going to try not to chase and just slowly chip away week by week.

SEC PICKS: 30-6 SU; 2-9-1 ATS (18.2%) -14.5U
OTHER PICKS: 15-5 SU; 9-10-2 ATS (47.4%) -5.2U
TOTAL PICKS: 45-11 SU; 11-19-3 ATS (36.7%) -19.7U

ATS PICKS: 10-15-3 -12.6U
OVER/UNDES: 1-4 -7.1U

1 UNIT PLAYS: 5-6-1 -1.6U
2 UNIT PLAYS: 4-10-2 -14U
3 UNIT PLAYS: 1-2 -3.6U
5 UNIT PLAYS: 1-1 -.5U

SEC PICKS (don’t love a lot of these lines this week)

MISSISSIPPIS (-2) vs CALIFORNIA (NO PLAY) – this will be a 9 am kick for the Cal Bears who come East to take on the Rebels. Cal’s defense has been great so far this year and I don’t expect that to change against the Rebels here who have struggled on offense. Cal’s offense isn’t much better only topping 27 points once in the last 9 games. Points will be hard to come by but Cal is used to playing games like this. If Ole Miss is able to get up early and make Cal play from behind then they can win this. In the end I think Cal’s defense will be too much. CALIFORNIA 23 OLE MISS 17

FLORIDA -14 vs TENNESSEE (NO PLAY) – well this is Tennessee’s chance to change their season. It’s been a horrible start for the Vols but a win over Florida would cure some things at least with the fan base. The problem is UT is best suited for a ball control offense which is something that won’t be easy against the Gator D. My guess is that the Florida D will be too much for Guarantano to handle and he will make a few costly mistakes. Trask will make some as well for Florida but the D will be the difference. FLORIDA 31 TENNESSEE 20

ALABAMA -39 vs SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (NO PLAY) – Alabama receivers will have a field day against the Golden Eagles who just gave up 500+ yards passing to Troy. This will be another game where Bama can cover if they want. Sothern Miss is decent enough on offense to get a few points at least but this line feels about right. ALABAMA 52 SOTHERN MISSISSIPPI 13

MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 vs KENTUCKY (2 UNITS) – line play will be the difference here and well I think that favors Kentucky. I thought the offense looked better than I expected against Florida last week. Mississippi State was just beat by KState last week with basically the same style that UK will be playing this week. I think the Wildcats get the win here and if not they should cover the points at least. KENTUCKY 27 MISSISSIPPI STATE 23

LSU -23 @ VANDERBILT (2 UNITS)– LSU was sluggish last week vs Northwestern State and while it’s a noon kick in Nashville and it is a possibility this week I expect the Tigers to come out firing this week. Vandy couldn’t slow down UGA or Purdue and with LSU’s offense right now I expect more of the same this week. LSY 49 VANDERBILT 13

TEXAS A&M -4 vs AUBURN (NO PLAY) – I’m really not sure what either team is at this point. The Auburn O really hasn’t done anything all year except against Kent State last week. Both defenses have been pretty stout so this one comes down to QB play…Mond or the freshman Nix. I just haven’t seen consistency from either one of the too trust either one at this point so I will take the home team in a defensive battle….and Texas A&M’s punter plays a key part in the victory. TEXAS A&M 24 AUBURN 20

ARKANSAS -21 vs SAN JOSE STATE (NO PLAY)– the Razorbacks offense looks much better now with Starkel at the helm. I expect the Hogs to pretty much do what they want on offense. SJST should be able to move the ball a bit through the air to hang around for awhile but the ground game will be too much for them to handle. ARKANSAS 45 SAN JOSE STATE 20

GEORGIA -14 vs NOTRE DAME (NO PLAY) – Georgia will get it’s first real test of the year. The Bulldogs have basically routed everyone they have faced so far this year. Georgia is without a doubt the better team on paper but I’m really interested to watch this one. ND needs to be able to get pressure on Fromm, which isn’t easy with the Bulldog oline. Book will make some plays for the Irish but he can’t turn the ball over, which he hasn’t done this year, if the Irish want to hang around in this one. In the end I think UGA is too much for the Irish but I expect the Irish to put up a fight for most of the game. GEORGIA 30 NOTRE DAME 17

MIZZOU -9.5 vs SOUTH CAROLINA (NO PLAY) – well once again this early season game against the Gamecocks will define the rest of the season for the Tigers. Win and anything is possible the rest of the way…lose this and fans will be saying it’s the same ol Tigers. I have been impressed with Hillinski and while Missouri’s pass defense is solid I don’t think it is as good as the statistics say right now. I don’t like Missouri’s lack of a consistent pass rush. I expect the Gamecocks to be able to move the ball a big and get some points in this game. I think in the end though the Tigers will have a bend but don’t break mentality on defense and will hold the Gamecocks to a few FG attempts which will be huge in the end. On offense I expect the Tigers to also be able to move the ball. The SC secondary hasn’t looked great so far…Bama I understand but UNC not so much…I expect Bryant to have a big day. In the end I think Mizzou wins this if they can win the turnover battle. They simple can’t do what they did against Wyoming and expect to win. I think this line is pretty spot on so I’m not playing it and would probably lean to SC and the points if I did. Tigers get a late TD to seal the deal. MIZZOU 34 SOUTH CAROINA 24

OTHER PICKS

NEBRASKA -11.5 @ ILLINOIS (2 UNITS) – Nebraska has now lost 8 straight road games…their last win on the road was a 25-24 win at Purdue, but this is still Illinois. Normally I would say this is a look ahead game with Ohio State coming to town next week but they can’t afford to look ahead of anyone right now. Huskers are more talented team and as long as they don’t lose a bunch of turnovers they should win this game pretty easily. NEBRASKA 38 ILLINOIS 13

OLD DOMINION +30.5 @ VIRGINIA (3 UNITS) – definition of a letdown game…big win over Florida State and a trip to Notre Dame next week. Virginia will win and probably easily but they will be sluggish early and 30+ points is a lot. VIRGINIA 31 OLD DOMINION 10

WASHINGTON STATE -18.5 vs UCLA (2 UNITS) – don’t expect any sympathy from Mike Leach or look for them to let off the gas pedal. Everyone has been able to throw on UCLA so I look for Gordon to have a huge day. WASHINGTON STATE 45 UCLA 17

OREGON -9.5 @ STANFORD (1 UNIT) – Stanford has been horrible and has been lit up on defense. So no reason to not expect Oregon to do the same. It feels weird taking the Ducks on the road at Stanford laying this many points but Stanford just isn’t that good right now. OREGON 37 STANFORD 20

WEST VIRGINIA -4.5 @ KANSAS (2 UNITS) – the BC win was nice but I think BC did what Mizzou did against Wyoming in week 1…got up early thought it would be easy and then got caught. West Virginia picked up a nice win against NC STATE…they get the win here. WEST VIRGINIA 31 KANSAS 17

LOUISVILLE +8 @ FLORIDA STATE (1 UNIT) – I’m not sure the Seminoles should be favored by 8 over anyone right now. Louisville gave ND a fight in week one and I think they give the Seminoles all they want here. FSU is a mess right now, but they find another way to win a close one. FLORIDA STATE 31 LOUISVILLE 28

NORTHWESTERN +9.5 vs MICHIGAN STATE (1 UNIT) – not sure Mich State should be laying nearly double digits on the road in a conference game. This game is going to be pretty much unwatchable and with it being an 11am kickoff maybe nobody will have to watch it. I trust Michigan State a little more but not 10 points more. MICHIGAN STATE 23 NORTHWESTERN 20

ALSO CONSIDERING

APPALACHIAN STATE +3 @ NORTH CAROLINA
UTAH -3.5 @ USC
SYRACUSE -6 vs WESTERN MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN -3.5 vs MICHIGAN (wish I had the futures line before the season started)
COLORADO +7.5 @ ARIZONA STATE
TULSA -3.5 vs WYOMING
OKLAHOMA STATE +5.5 @ TEXAS

Edited by qbbearcat at 08:45:45 on 09/18/19
Report Message

Please explain why this message is being reported.

REPLY

Handle:
Password:
Subject:

MESSAGE THREAD

SEC PICKS WEEK 4 and other games... - qbbearcat MU - 9/18 08:45:14




©2024 Fanboards L.L.C. — Our Privacy Policy   About Tigerboard