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Softball bracketology...
Posted on: April 17, 2019 at 09:52:48 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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Anyone know of some decent bracket projections for softball? Not CSM. The only decent one I can find is a guy on Ultimate College Softball who seems to know his stuff, but seems to rely a lot on RPI ranks, and while that is generally a good predictor, there is more to it than that.
According to that bracket projection from yesterday, Mizzou is one of the last 8 at large bids, but has moved out of the last 4 in. Listing them by RPI rank, here are the last 13 at large bids:
30 Miss St
31 Colorado St
32 Arizona St
33 Louisville
35 Georgia
36 Missouri
38 North Carolina
39 Wisconsin
40 Indiana
41 TAMU
42 Houston
43 Illinois
44 Ohio St
Those last 4 are projected as the last 4 in. The first 4 out are projected:
37 UNLV
46 Oregon St
47 UCF
49 Lipscomb
I can see why UNLV is projected out right now, they haven’t played a single game against the top 25 all year, and are 5-3 against 26-50. But they are right on the bubble, along with Oregon St and UCF.
Oregon, at 34 this week, is the highest rated team not projected in, but that is because they are sitting at 17-21, and need at least a .500 record to qualify. If they finish .500, they will clearly get a bid. They were fortunate to have games against Tennessee and Michigan rained out earlier. As it stands they need to go at least 9-5 the rest of the way to get to .500. 11/14 remaining games are at home, and all the toughest PAC teams are out of the way, so I’d give them a 50/50 shot, even though they only have one effective pitcher. If that happens, the bubble will tighten up and some team like Illinois, Ohio St, or TAMU won’t make it. Of course, upsets in conference tournaments with automatic bids could further shrink the bubble.
I like our position right now with respect to the projected last 13 teams in, and the first 4 out. We have the second most top 25 wins (5) of those 17 teams, only NC has more with 6. Illinois has 4, and no one else has more than 3. And we have a very good chance to add to our 5 top 25 wins by the seasons end. And, we have by far the most top 50 wins of this group (11) and will add to that with 9 more chances. NC is next with 8, then Louisville and Illinois with 7. And we have one of the toughest overall SOS in the nation.
Also helping our case is we have head to head wins over several teams we are going to get compared to, like Georgia (2), Arizona St, and Illinois (2), with chances for wins against Miss St and TAMU. The only losses we have against this group are to Louisville and Oregon St.
Moving our RPI closer to 30, and finishing strong against TAMU, Miss St, and SC, will take nearly all the pressure off and assure a bid. Then we will sweat what regional we get sent to. That’s another post for another day, but right now the situation is the same as usual, very few projected non-SEC national seeds close by, the closest are Northwestern and Ok St, both 325 miles. Better one of them than Oklahoma (380 miles).
Edited by bluetiger_ at 10:12:53 on 04/17/19
According to that bracket projection from yesterday, Mizzou is one of the last 8 at large bids, but has moved out of the last 4 in. Listing them by RPI rank, here are the last 13 at large bids:
30 Miss St
31 Colorado St
32 Arizona St
33 Louisville
35 Georgia
36 Missouri
38 North Carolina
39 Wisconsin
40 Indiana
41 TAMU
42 Houston
43 Illinois
44 Ohio St
Those last 4 are projected as the last 4 in. The first 4 out are projected:
37 UNLV
46 Oregon St
47 UCF
49 Lipscomb
I can see why UNLV is projected out right now, they haven’t played a single game against the top 25 all year, and are 5-3 against 26-50. But they are right on the bubble, along with Oregon St and UCF.
Oregon, at 34 this week, is the highest rated team not projected in, but that is because they are sitting at 17-21, and need at least a .500 record to qualify. If they finish .500, they will clearly get a bid. They were fortunate to have games against Tennessee and Michigan rained out earlier. As it stands they need to go at least 9-5 the rest of the way to get to .500. 11/14 remaining games are at home, and all the toughest PAC teams are out of the way, so I’d give them a 50/50 shot, even though they only have one effective pitcher. If that happens, the bubble will tighten up and some team like Illinois, Ohio St, or TAMU won’t make it. Of course, upsets in conference tournaments with automatic bids could further shrink the bubble.
I like our position right now with respect to the projected last 13 teams in, and the first 4 out. We have the second most top 25 wins (5) of those 17 teams, only NC has more with 6. Illinois has 4, and no one else has more than 3. And we have a very good chance to add to our 5 top 25 wins by the seasons end. And, we have by far the most top 50 wins of this group (11) and will add to that with 9 more chances. NC is next with 8, then Louisville and Illinois with 7. And we have one of the toughest overall SOS in the nation.
Also helping our case is we have head to head wins over several teams we are going to get compared to, like Georgia (2), Arizona St, and Illinois (2), with chances for wins against Miss St and TAMU. The only losses we have against this group are to Louisville and Oregon St.
Moving our RPI closer to 30, and finishing strong against TAMU, Miss St, and SC, will take nearly all the pressure off and assure a bid. Then we will sweat what regional we get sent to. That’s another post for another day, but right now the situation is the same as usual, very few projected non-SEC national seeds close by, the closest are Northwestern and Ok St, both 325 miles. Better one of them than Oklahoma (380 miles).
Edited by bluetiger_ at 10:12:53 on 04/17/19
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Softball bracketology... - bluetiger_ MU - 4/17 09:52:48