Q1 win (vs Q2, Q3, and Q4). You're right that it's not arbitrary. It's very specifically defined.
The wins will count, but they will be Q2 wins instead of Q1 wins, which aren't nearly as impressive to the committee.
Yes, we're currently projected as being in the tournament, but the game against Arkansas on Saturday is crucial as I explained here:
http://tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=15487174