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Some thoughts on WBB NCAA chances...
Posted on: January 20, 2017 at 10:23:49 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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At this point I don't think they get in, but there are some critical games upcoming that could build our resume to draw the attention of the selection committee. An upset of a South Carolina or a Mississippi State would be a game changer, but I wouldn't count on that. Here are the problems we face:
1. Pingetons usual cupcake non-conference scheduling continues to hurt Mizzou with respect to making the tourney field. The strength of our non-conference schedule is appalling, despite playing (and losing to) current #7 RPI Washington. I'm using RPI here as poll rankings mean nothing at all to the selection committee. Our only 'signature' NC win, if you can call it that, was against #36 Creighton. That's it. We also lost to #49 Georgia Tech, and had two atrocious losses to #82 IUPUI and ##145 SLU. Those last 2 are bad losses that will count against us when getting compared to other potential bubble teams. To illustrate how bad our NC schedule was, here are the rest of our opponents:
Western Illinois 117
Abeline Christian 126
Nebraska 153
MO State 154
Indiana State 168
UC Riverside 170
Wichita State 204
SIUE 257
UT Martin 282
2. The SEC is divided into basically 3 groups in terms of RPI strength:
The Super Elite:
South Carolina 3
Miss State 4
The other likely NCAA teams:
Tennessee 15
Kentucky 19
Auburn 20
LSU 21
TAMU 25
The rest who have no chance at the NCAA tourney:
Florida 68
Georgia 86
Ole Miss 93
Arkansas 96
Vandy 115
Alabama 130
Where is Mizzou in the RPI? #55 this week. Beating TAMU will help. Beating the bottom 6 teams in the SEC? No help at all. And we have already lost, at home, to the worst RPI team in the SEC.
The good news? We have 5 games left against teams that we can enhance our resume by beating them. The bad news? We have to actually play them, including SC at home and MSU and Tennessee on the road. We will lose those games, giving us 6 SEC losses, at least, and no better than a 20-10 overall record. And that's if we sweep every other of the 7 games we have left besides those, which includes Auburn, Kentucky, and @ Alabama. If we lose any of those we are looking at a record of 18-12 or 19-11 at best, which will not get us in the NCAA, because of our NC scheduling and lack of signature wins overall.
Beating TAMU last night was critical. But it kept us barely breathing with respect to the NCAA tourney. We have no margin of error, unless we pull a huge upset of SC or MSU. Even 20-10 will leave us clearly on the bubble, and probably on the wrong side of it. Anything less than that and it's the NIT for the 4th time in 5 years.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 10:26:28 on 01/20/17
1. Pingetons usual cupcake non-conference scheduling continues to hurt Mizzou with respect to making the tourney field. The strength of our non-conference schedule is appalling, despite playing (and losing to) current #7 RPI Washington. I'm using RPI here as poll rankings mean nothing at all to the selection committee. Our only 'signature' NC win, if you can call it that, was against #36 Creighton. That's it. We also lost to #49 Georgia Tech, and had two atrocious losses to #82 IUPUI and ##145 SLU. Those last 2 are bad losses that will count against us when getting compared to other potential bubble teams. To illustrate how bad our NC schedule was, here are the rest of our opponents:
Western Illinois 117
Abeline Christian 126
Nebraska 153
MO State 154
Indiana State 168
UC Riverside 170
Wichita State 204
SIUE 257
UT Martin 282
2. The SEC is divided into basically 3 groups in terms of RPI strength:
The Super Elite:
South Carolina 3
Miss State 4
The other likely NCAA teams:
Tennessee 15
Kentucky 19
Auburn 20
LSU 21
TAMU 25
The rest who have no chance at the NCAA tourney:
Florida 68
Georgia 86
Ole Miss 93
Arkansas 96
Vandy 115
Alabama 130
Where is Mizzou in the RPI? #55 this week. Beating TAMU will help. Beating the bottom 6 teams in the SEC? No help at all. And we have already lost, at home, to the worst RPI team in the SEC.
The good news? We have 5 games left against teams that we can enhance our resume by beating them. The bad news? We have to actually play them, including SC at home and MSU and Tennessee on the road. We will lose those games, giving us 6 SEC losses, at least, and no better than a 20-10 overall record. And that's if we sweep every other of the 7 games we have left besides those, which includes Auburn, Kentucky, and @ Alabama. If we lose any of those we are looking at a record of 18-12 or 19-11 at best, which will not get us in the NCAA, because of our NC scheduling and lack of signature wins overall.
Beating TAMU last night was critical. But it kept us barely breathing with respect to the NCAA tourney. We have no margin of error, unless we pull a huge upset of SC or MSU. Even 20-10 will leave us clearly on the bubble, and probably on the wrong side of it. Anything less than that and it's the NIT for the 4th time in 5 years.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 10:26:28 on 01/20/17
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Some thoughts on WBB NCAA chances... - bluetiger_ MU - 1/20 10:23:49