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Some elementary statistical analysis. I did not take the
Posted on: October 27, 2016 at 16:45:13 CT
alwaysright MU
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time to break out the stats against MU, so there is some room for error when considering that some teams have played us and some have not, which might inflate their stats.
I use yards per play because it offers a bit of an efficiency measure.
First looking at our Offense. We average 6.3 ypp on the year.
Florida, LSU, and WVU all allow 5.1 ypp or less on the year. LSU and WVU held us under their average and under our average. We did better against UF than they normally allow, but less than our average.
Mid Ten allowed 5.3 ypp and we got 6 on them.
SCar allows 5.3. E Mich and UGA allows 5.5 and we put up 8.3 & 6.3 on them.
Everybody else on our schedule allows at least 5.8 ypp on the year.
I would expect our offensive efficiency to improve against our remaining schedule.
Looking at our Defense. We allow 5.7 ypp on the year.
LSU & MidTenn average 7 and 6.7 ypp on offense. We gave them 7.7 and 7.
WVU and EMich average 6.6 and 6 and we held them to 5.8 & 4.7.
Florida and UGA average 5.8 & 5.4 and we allowed 6.8 & 4.4 to them.
Everybody else on the schedule averages less than 6 ypp and everybody we've played that averages less than 6.6 has performed less efficiently against MU except Florida.
If you sort both groups of data, Florida is the only outlier and they did it on both sides of the ball.
Based on this metric, we have already played the 4 best offenses and 4 best defenses we will face all year. We still have the 2 worst offenses left and the 4 worst defenses left.
Clearly, SoS is not factored in. Ark and Tenn have top 10 SoS so far and the other three have SoS at least 13 spots below us.
There is a lot of question as to why we're favored against Kentucky. Both their offense and defense are below the bar where we do better than our opponents season average by a decent margin, and against a notably weaker schedule. Everybody left on our schedule is below this bar on both sides of the ball.
Now somebody factor in how injuries are going to change all of this.
Edited by alwaysright at 16:46:12 on 10/27/16
I use yards per play because it offers a bit of an efficiency measure.
First looking at our Offense. We average 6.3 ypp on the year.
Florida, LSU, and WVU all allow 5.1 ypp or less on the year. LSU and WVU held us under their average and under our average. We did better against UF than they normally allow, but less than our average.
Mid Ten allowed 5.3 ypp and we got 6 on them.
SCar allows 5.3. E Mich and UGA allows 5.5 and we put up 8.3 & 6.3 on them.
Everybody else on our schedule allows at least 5.8 ypp on the year.
I would expect our offensive efficiency to improve against our remaining schedule.
Looking at our Defense. We allow 5.7 ypp on the year.
LSU & MidTenn average 7 and 6.7 ypp on offense. We gave them 7.7 and 7.
WVU and EMich average 6.6 and 6 and we held them to 5.8 & 4.7.
Florida and UGA average 5.8 & 5.4 and we allowed 6.8 & 4.4 to them.
Everybody else on the schedule averages less than 6 ypp and everybody we've played that averages less than 6.6 has performed less efficiently against MU except Florida.
If you sort both groups of data, Florida is the only outlier and they did it on both sides of the ball.
Based on this metric, we have already played the 4 best offenses and 4 best defenses we will face all year. We still have the 2 worst offenses left and the 4 worst defenses left.
Clearly, SoS is not factored in. Ark and Tenn have top 10 SoS so far and the other three have SoS at least 13 spots below us.
There is a lot of question as to why we're favored against Kentucky. Both their offense and defense are below the bar where we do better than our opponents season average by a decent margin, and against a notably weaker schedule. Everybody left on our schedule is below this bar on both sides of the ball.
Now somebody factor in how injuries are going to change all of this.
Edited by alwaysright at 16:46:12 on 10/27/16
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Some elementary statistical analysis. I did not take the - alwaysright MU - 10/27 16:45:13
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